This North Carolina voter is nervous.
Will Rikard, a 49-year-old father of two, was among several hundred Democrats who stood and cheered for Joe Biden as the first-term president delivered a fiery speech recently about the billions of dollars he has delivered to protect the stateB次元官网网址檚 drinking water.
But afterward, the Wilmington resident acknowledged he is worried about BidenB次元官网网址檚 political standing in the looming rematch with former Republican President Donald Trump.
B次元官网网址淭hereB次元官网网址檚 not enough energy,B次元官网网址� Rikard said of BidenB次元官网网址檚 coalition. B次元官网网址淚 think people are gonna need to wake up and get going.B次元官网网址�
Exactly six months before Election Day, Biden and Trump are locked in the first contest in 112 years with a current and former president competing for the White House. ItB次元官网网址檚 a race that is at once deeply entrenched and highly in flux as many voters are only just beginning to embrace the reality of the 2024 campaign.
Wars, trials, the independent candidacy of Robert Kennedy Jr. and deep divisions across America have injected extraordinary uncertainty into a race for the White House in which either man would be the oldest president ever sworn in on Inauguration Day. At the same time, policy fights over abortion, immigration and the economy are raging on Capitol Hill and in statehouses.
VOTERS IN DENIAL
Hovering over it all is the disbelief of many voters, despite all evidence to the contrary, that Biden and Trump B次元官网网址� their respective partiesB次元官网网址� presumptive nominees B次元官网网址� will ultimately appear on the general election ballot this fall.
B次元官网网址淚 think we have an electorate thatB次元官网网址檚 going through the stages of grief about this election,B次元官网网址� said Sarah Longwell, who conducts regular focus groups with voters across the political spectrum as co-founder of Republican Voters Against Trump. B次元官网网址淭heyB次元官网网址檝e done denial B次元官网网址� B次元官网网址楴ot these two, canB次元官网网址檛 possibly be these two.B次元官网网址� And I think theyB次元官网网址檙e in depression now. IB次元官网网址檓 waiting for people to hit acceptance.B次元官网网址�
Trump is in the midst of the first of potentially four criminal trials and facing felony charges. The Constitution does not prevent him from assuming the presidency if convicted B次元官网网址� or even if he is in prison.
Biden, who will turn 82 years old just weeks after Election Day, Nov. 5, is already the oldest president in U.S. history; Trump is 77.
Privately, Democratic operatives close to the campaign worry constantly about BidenB次元官网网址檚 health and votersB次元官网网址� dim perceptions of it. In recent weeks, aides have begun walking at BidenB次元官网网址檚 side as he strolls to and from Marine One, the presidential helicopter, on the White House South Lawn in an apparent effort to help mask the presidentB次元官网网址檚 stiff gait.
Still, neither party is making serious contingency plans. Whether voters want to believe it or not, the general election matchup is all but set.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, said many voters arel recovering from what he called B次元官网网址渁 knock-down, drag-out fightB次元官网网址� that was the 2020 presidential election.
B次元官网网址淢any of them have not wrapped their heads around the fact that it is, in fact, going to be a rematch,B次元官网网址� Cooper said in an interview. B次元官网网址淲hen they do, I donB次元官网网址檛 think thereB次元官网网址檚 any question that Joe Biden is going to win the day.B次元官网网址�
GETTING TO 270 ELECTORIAL VOTES B次元官网网址� THE BATTLEGROUND STATES
Even before voters begin paying close attention, the political map in the fight for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency is already taking shape.
BidenB次元官网网址檚 campaign is increasingly optimistic about North Carolina, a state he lost by just 1 percentage point in 2020. Overall, the Democratic presidentB次元官网网址檚 reelection campaign has several hundred staff in more than 133 offices in the seven most critical states: Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
TrumpB次元官网网址檚 team has barely begun to roll out swing-state infrastructure, although he campaigned in Wisconsin and Michigan over the past week, sending a clear signal that he wants to block BidenB次元官网网址檚 path to reelection via the DemocratsB次元官网网址� Midwestern B次元官网网址渂lue wall.B次元官网网址�
Trump campaign senior adviser Chris LaCivita said Trump is making plans to invest new resources in at least two other Democratic-leaning states.
At a private donor retreat in Florida on Saturday, LaCivita discussed the campaignB次元官网网址檚 plans to expand its electoral map into Virginia and Minnesota, based on the Trump teamB次元官网网址檚 growing optimism that both states are within reach.
B次元官网网址淲e have a real opportunity to expand the map here,B次元官网网址� LaCivita told tThe Associated Press. B次元官网网址淭he Biden campaign has spent tens of millions of dollars on TV ads and in their B次元官网网址榲aunted ground gameB次元官网网址�. And they have nothing to show for it.B次元官网网址�
BidenB次元官网网址檚 campaign welcomed TrumpB次元官网网址檚 team to spend money in Democratic states. B次元官网网址淭he Biden campaign is going to relentlessly focus on the pathway to 270 electoral votes, and thatB次元官网网址檚 what our efforts represent,B次元官网网址� campaign communications director Michael Tyler said.
Biden has been spending far more aggressively on election infrastructure and advertising heading into the six-month stretch toward Election Day.
In the eight weeks since he essentially clinched the Republican nomination, TrumpB次元官网网址檚 campaign has spent virtually nothing on television advertising, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact. Outside groups aligned with Trump have spent just over $9 million.
Over the same period, AdImpact found, Biden and his allies have spent more than $29 million spread across Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
TrumpB次元官网网址檚 team has been unusually conservative, in part, to avoid the perceived mistakes of 2020, when his campaign essentially ran out of money and was forced to cut back on advertising in the electionB次元官网网址檚 critical final days, but also because it has struggled to reignite its appeal with small donors and because of the diversion of some dollars to the former presidentB次元官网网址檚 legal defense.
TrumpB次元官网网址檚 team insists they will soon ramp up their advertising and on-the-ground infrastructure, although LaCivita refused to offer any specifics.
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VOTERS UNDERWHELMED WITH THEIR OPTIONS
It is clear that Biden and Trump have serious work to do to improve their standing with voters.
While optimistic in public, Biden allies privately acknowledge that his approval ratings may be lower than Democrat Jimmy CarterB次元官网网址檚 numbers at this point in his presidency. TrumpB次元官网网址檚 ratings are not much better.
Public polling consistently shows that voters donB次元官网网址檛 like their 2024 options.
Only about 2 in 10 Americans say they would be excited by Biden (21%) or Trump (25%) being elected president, according to an AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll conducted in March. Only about one-quarter of voters in the survey say they would be satisfied about each.
A recent CNN poll conducted in April found that 53% of registered voters say they are dissatisfied with the presidential candidates they have to choose from in this yearB次元官网网址檚 election.
Another major wild card is Kennedy, a member of the storied political dynasty and an anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist who is running as an independent. Both major campaigns are taking him seriously as a potential spoiler, with TrumpB次元官网网址檚 allies notably ramping up their criticism of Kennedy in recent days.
BIDENB次元官网网址橲 PLAN; REMIND VOTERS WHAT TRUMPB次元官网网址橲 PRESIDENCY WAS LIKE
For now, BidenB次元官网网址檚 team is most focused on reminding voters of TrumpB次元官网网址檚 divisive leadership. Three years after Trump left office, there is a sense that some voters may have forgotten what it was like with the former reality television star in the Oval Office B次元官网网址� or his efforts to overturn the 2020 election that have landed him in legal peril.
B次元官网网址淭he plan is reminding voters of what life was like with Trump and also demonstrating to voters that the ways in which the world feels uncertain to them now are not, in fact, caused by the president, but can actually be navigated by this president,B次元官网网址� Biden pollster Mary Murphy told the AP. B次元官网网址淰oters will trust his leadership and stewardship, knowing that things can be a lot worse if itB次元官网网址檚 Donald Trump.B次元官网网址�
BidenB次元官网网址檚 team is also betting that fierce backlash to new restrictions on abortion, which Trump and Republicans have largely championed, will drive voters to Democrats like they did in the 2022 midterm election and 2023 state races.
But BidenB次元官网网址檚 success also is dependent on the DemocratB次元官网网址檚 ability to reassemble his winning coalition from 2020 at a time when enthusiasm is lagging among critical voting blocs including Blacks, young voters and Arab Americans unhappy over the presidentB次元官网网址檚 handling of the war in Gaza.
TRUMPB次元官网网址橲 PLAN: TURN HIS LEGAL WOES TO HIS ADVANTAGE
Trump has been forced to adapt his campaign to his first criminal trial in New York. Prosecutors allege he committed financial fraud to hide hush money payments to a porn actor, Stormy Daniels, who says she had a sexual encounter with Trump. He denies her claim and has pleaded not guilty.
For now, Trump is forced to attend the trial most weekdays. A verdict is likely still weeks away. And after that, he faces the prospect of more trials related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and his handling of classified documents. The Supreme Court is weighing whether Trump should be granted immunity, or partial immunity, for the actions he took while in office.
Trump over the past week wedged in campaign stops around his court schedule, rallying voters in Wisconsin and Michigan, where the abortion debate is raging.
Trump seemed to be searching for a way to lessen the political sting from the upheaval over the Supreme CourtB次元官网网址檚 overturning of national abortion rights. The former president suggested the issue will ultimately bring the country together as states carve out differing laws.
B次元官网网址淎 lot of bad things will happen beyond the abortion issue if you donB次元官网网址檛 win elections, with your taxes and everything else,B次元官网网址� he told Michigan voters.
TrumpB次元官网网址檚 camp privately maintains that his unprecedented trial in New York will dominate the news B次元官网网址� and votersB次元官网网址� attention B次元官网网址� for the foreseeable future. His campaign has largely stopped trying to roll out unrelated news during the trial.
Even if Trump were to be convicted by the New York jury, his advisers insist the fundamentals of the election will not change. Trump has worked aggressively to undermine public confidence in the charges against him. Meanwhile, more traditional issues work in his favor, including stubbornly high inflation and the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, in the view of the Trump team.
LaCivita said that such issues constantly reinforce BidenB次元官网网址檚 weakness as B次元官网网址渢he news of the day keeps getting worse.B次元官网网址�
Both sides seem to agree that the dynamics of the race may yet shift dramatically based on any number of factors, from how the economy fares or the course of the wars in Gaza and Ukraine to crime or migration trends or other foreseen events. Potential candidate debates this fall could be another wild card.
Such uncertainty, said BidenB次元官网网址檚 battleground states director Dan Kanninen, can play to their favor.
B次元官网网址淭hat dynamic is an opportunity as much as a challenge for us,B次元官网网址� he said, B次元官网网址渂ecause we will have the resources, the infrastructure and the operation built to be engaging voters throughout all those difficult waters.B次元官网网址�
____
Miller reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Linley Sanders in Washington and Michelle L. Price in Freeland, Michigan, contributed to this report.
Steve Peoples And Zeke Miller, The Associated Press
