The federal election campaign has started. Although we all knew it was coming, the road to the polls is noticeably longer this time around.

The more than two-month campaign length could be a game-changer for political strategy, but runs the risk of losing votersB次元官网网址� interest said one political expert.

B次元官网网址淲e are met with one of the most interesting elections in modern Canadian political history,B次元官网网址� said David Black, a Royal Roads associate professor with a Ph.D. in social and political thought. B次元官网网址淭hereB次元官网网址檚 simply more room for things to happen.B次元官网网址�

Black said roughly 40 per cent of eligible voters have already decided what party to vote for. The remaining 60 per cent are referred to as B次元官网网址渓ow-information voters,B次元官网网址� a term Black stressed is not meant as an insult, but simply refers to voters who do not actively follow the political climate.

This group is also often referred to as the swing vote and they can be what makes an election interesting, he said.

Typically, such voters donB次元官网网址檛 start paying attention to the campaign until the last few weeks and are especially persuadable by television advertising. However, he said, no one knows how these individuals will react to this unprecedented length of campaign. Black wondered if they would burn out because of the length.

B次元官网网址淲hat we have here is a great experiment in Canadian democracy,B次元官网网址� he said.

Low-information voters will be drawn out to vote in good elections. The more exciting, controversial, or close an election feels, the more likely these swing voters will cast their ballot. They want to feel like their vote made a difference and they voted for the winner, Black said.

The West Shore is a prime example of an area that could potentially draw out those voters.

B次元官网网址淵ouB次元官网网址檝e got a mobile population who typically, for good reason, donB次元官网网址檛 vote with the same frequency because theyB次元官网网址檙e not as embedded in the neighbourhoods,B次元官网网址� he said, adding the areaB次元官网网址檚 two ridings have been redrawn, which will make for great races.

B次元官网网址淭he political geography of the Island is so interesting, because every party has enjoyed power here,B次元官网网址� he said. B次元官网网址淚 donB次元官网网址檛 think that there is a political geography or a region in the country that is both so small in terms of square miles, and yet so full of political variety, so full of political surprises.B次元官网网址�

Paul Holmes, social media guru and Sooke resident, co-hosts a regular podcast (johnpaulandmic.ca) on business and politics.

B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 going to be a tough one to predict,B次元官网网址� he said, noting that the West Shore is an interesting area, given its younger (under-50) demographic. B次元官网网址淭he younger you are, the less likely you are to vote.B次元官网网址�

He doesnB次元官网网址檛 see a galvanizing issue in this election that could draw out those voters, at least not yet. B次元官网网址淚 guess IB次元官网网址檓 a little bit cynical.B次元官网网址�

Holmes doesnB次元官网网址檛 expect many of the local candidates to drift too far from their partyB次元官网网址檚 script. And he doesnB次元官网网址檛 believe most Canadians will start evaluating the issues and considering what kind of Canada they want to see during this election because of all of the hostility.

B次元官网网址淚 think it will be the negative campaign to end all negative campaigns,B次元官网网址� he said. B次元官网网址淚 think itB次元官网网址檚 going to get nasty.B次元官网网址�

HeB次元官网网址檚 already sick of the mud-slinging being done on the national level, but wasnB次元官网网址檛 sure if it would trickle down to the local level. B次元官网网址淚f that is the gist of the campaign and no one manages to get their message out, we could see voter turnout fall.B次元官网网址�

Long-term voter fatigue could also negatively affect voter turnout on the West Shore, he said, citing evidence on social media.

Holmes has already seen a number of people B次元官网网址渦nfriendingB次元官网网址� each other on sites like Facebook because they donB次元官网网址檛 agree with, or are tired of othersB次元官网网址� political rants. He suggests B次元官网网址渕utingB次元官网网址� those Facebook friends until after the election to preserve friendships.

Voter fatigue could be a reality by the end of the 11-week (78 days) marathon of a campaign that will see Canadians cast their ballots on Oct. 19. It is the longest election period since the late 19th century B次元官网网址� almost twice as long as the typical five- or six-week campaign.

Unlike shorter campaigns, which are B次元官网网址渧ery typical, everyone knows the rules,B次元官网网址� Black said, this yearB次元官网网址檚 campaign will require different political strategies.

The extended timeline might also play into a Conservative advantage, said Black, allowing them to make full use of their hefty campaign war chest, which he said was the largest in Canadian political history, and something that will come in handy in the final sprint to the polls.

While there are a number of ways for parties to spend their war chest, Black outlined two general categories, ground and air. He said the real expense is in television advertising (air), where many voters are swayed leading up to an election.

Holmes said money would have less of a deciding factor in the local ridings, as a rising number of residents no longer have cable. B次元官网网址淚 donB次元官网网址檛 think itB次元官网网址檚 as important as the last election or the one before.B次元官网网址�

He said a deciding factor in the local campaign would be the ground game, or the B次元官网网址済et out and voteB次元官网网址� campaign.

B次元官网网址淚 think the chance of everyone getting a knock on their door has gone up considerably,B次元官网网址� Holmes said.

He added that traditionally the NDP has run a very strong ground game and that style of campaigning could make or break the race for the Green Party.

Election influencers:

Royal Roads University associate professor David Black, who also holds a Ph.D. in social and political thought, said several factors will influence the results of this election campaign besides its unprecedented length, and the depth of money the parties are bringing to the fight.

This is a tight race between the three top parties, potentially any of whom could win a minority government, he said, adding the possibility of any party winning a majority is highly unlikely. A minority outcome in itself could be a very unique situation of potential alliances and changes in strategies, said Black.

Third-party groups, or political action groups (PACs) have been more active than ever leading up to the election call, he said, and these organizations are wielding more influence as they begin to look more like their American counterparts.

The New Democrats and the Conservatives are both in very rare positions. With the NDP arguably closer to power than ever, Black said, B次元官网网址淭his creates a very interesting storyB次元官网网址� The political norm is being opened up.B次元官网网址�

The Conservatives are in the unique situation of seeking a rare fourth mandate.

When asked whether the extra expense of the longer election would weigh on votersB次元官网网址� decisions, Black didnB次元官网网址檛 think so. B次元官网网址淚 think itB次元官网网址檚 a sound bite.B次元官网网址� He said most Canadians accept that elections cost a lot of money, and B次元官网网址渢hatB次元官网网址檚 the kind of thing that gets quickly lost.B次元官网网址�

He thinks Canadians will be more concerned about evaluating the state of the economy under the Conservatives, and whether the Canada they have created is a place they can identify with.

B次元官网网址淚s this the kind of Canada that people like and want or do they prefer to turn the page on it?B次元官网网址�

ItB次元官网网址檚 not the type of question that gets asked after one mandate, he said, but you certainly see it after three.

katie@goldstreamgazette.com