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The demise of single-family starter homes: Residents driven out of Greater Victoria for decades

B次元官网网址業tB次元官网网址檚 going to take us a long time to build out of this in a meaningful wayB次元官网网址
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Looking down on the Royal Bay development in Colwood from Metchosin Road. (Katherine Engqvist/B次元官网网址 Staff)

This is the second instalment in a three-part series on single-family homes in Greater Victoria. Find part three in next weekB次元官网网址檚 edition or the full series online at .

With an estimated 22 years needed to save for a down payment and an annual household income of $216,000 needed, the dream of owning a single-family home is unattainable for many residents in Greater Victoria.

But simply building more homes may not be the answer.

B次元官网网址淪ingle-family homes just donB次元官网网址檛 work any more,B次元官网网址 said Victoria resident Robert Berry. B次元官网网址淭hereB次元官网网址檚 not enough 6,000 sq. ft. lots in Victoria for everyone to get their own land.B次元官网网址

His awakening, as he called it, occurred in his 20s while he watched his friends move out of Oak Bay B次元官网网址 where he had grown up B次元官网网址 to either Langford or out of the region entirely because there was no housing available.

B次元官网网址淲eB次元官网网址檙e looking around going B次元官网网址榳ow, where are the townhouses or condos for us,B次元官网网址橞次元官网网址 he said. B次元官网网址淲eB次元官网网址檝e all left.B次元官网网址

Berry decided to take action by advocating for attainable middle-income housing to be built again in Greater Victoria.

B次元官网网址淚 got tired of essentially watching my friends move out of Victoria.B次元官网网址

So Berry, along with other members of Homes for Living, started attending public hearings and other municipal meetings to give a voice to those who are vulnerable to the housing crisis by advocating for all types of housing B次元官网网址 including multi-unit, mixed-use and non-profit builds.

B次元官网网址淲e have a serious housing shortage,B次元官网网址 Berry said, and if something isnB次元官网网址檛 done to address it, single-family homes will only increasingly become more unaffordable for most.

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Zac de Vries, a second-term Saanich councillor and chair of the Capital Region Housing Corporation, has seen a socio-economic and generational divide among the public and councils that has resulted in well-housed residents not seeing the urgency in Greater VictoriaB次元官网网址檚 housing situation and people under the age of 35, in particular, left struggling.

B次元官网网址淎 wide range of people have been driven out of the single-detached market for years B次元官网网址 weB次元官网网址檙e talking decades.B次元官网网址

Yet, as he noted, local municipalities continue to predominantly build single-family homes. These homes are financially out of reach for the vast majority of residents, leaving the majority of residents fighting for the limited supply of other units in the market B次元官网网址 also increasing pressure on the rental market.

B次元官网网址淭his was decades and decades in the making B次元官网网址 ItB次元官网网址檚 going to take us a long time to build out of this in a meaningful way.B次元官网网址

The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation estimated in a June 2022 study how much additional housing supply would be required nationally to restore housing affordability by 2030.

Affordability B次元官网网址 the cost of housing to income B次元官网网址 will continue to worsen, the report predicted, if supply isnB次元官网网址檛 increased to match demand.

B次元官网网址淭he last time housing was affordable was in 2003 and 2004.B次元官网网址

Shelter cost as a share of disposable income when the average household buys the average house based on MLS prices. (Housing Shortages in Canada: Solving the Affordability Crisis, CMHC report)
Shelter cost as a share of disposable income when the average household buys the average house based on MLS prices. (Housing Shortages in Canada: Solving the Affordability Crisis, CMHC report)

At that time, a home-buyer in B.C. would have needed 45 per cent of their disposable income to buy an average home. By 2021, that rose to almost 60 per cent.

B次元官网网址淚f the current rates of new construction continue, we project that the housing stock will increase by 2.3 million units between 2021 and 2030. This will reach close to 19 million housing units by 2030.B次元官网网址

But the report predicted 3.5 million units would be needed, translating to more than 22 million units by 2030 to help achieve housing affordability nationally.

B次元官网网址淥verall, the loss of affordability can be attributed to a housing supply not responding to demand in some of CanadaB次元官网网址檚 large urban areas over the last 20 years.B次元官网网址

In B.C., the report predicted 21 per cent more housing units (570,000) would be needed above the B次元官网网址榖usiness-as-usualB次元官网网址 scenario to get housing affordability down to 44 per cent and 24 per cent more (620,000) to achieve 40 per cent.

B次元官网网址淐anadaB次元官网网址檚 approach to housing supply needs to be rethought. It needs to be done differently. There must be a drastic transformation of the housing sector B次元官网网址 including governments B次元官网网址 and priority given to increasing the supply of housing to meet demand.B次元官网网址

In 2019, the province mandated municipalities complete housing needs reports by April 2022 (and every five years thereafter).

If Victoria continues to grow in a similar pattern to the past, the city will see an additional 5,016 households form between 2016 and 2025 B次元官网网址 made up of 47 per cent renters and 53 per cent owners B次元官网网址 according to its 2020 report. To meet that projection, the city would need 2,900 more units between 2020 and 2025.

In LangfordB次元官网网址檚 2020 report, its population was expected to grow by 2,775 households between 2020 and 2025.

While LangfordB次元官网网址檚 traditional housing stock was predominantly single-family homes, B次元官网网址渂etween 2015 and 2019, 72.5 per cent of additional dwelling units in Langford were apartments, 17.5 per cent were single-family dwellings, 9.3 per cent were townhomes, and one per cent were duplexes.B次元官网网址

Colwood is estimated to need an additional 2,640 households in the 10-year period ending in 2028.

In Saanich, its 2020 study predicted a total of 3,049 units B次元官网网址 1,231 studio or one-bedroom, 1,178 two-bedroom, and 640 three or more bedroom units B次元官网网址 would be needed by 2025.

B次元官网网址淔amily-sized housing in Victoria, Saanich, and Esquimalt is increasingly out of reach for families with children. The affordability gap analysis showed that the cost of a single detached home is out of reach for couples with children making the median household income, and far out of reach for lone-parent families,B次元官网网址 the report said.

On the Peninsula, SidneyB次元官网网址檚 2019 report predicted an additional 322 owner households would be needed between 2019 and 2024.

B次元官网网址淎s in many communities, households without existing equity, primarily younger households B次元官网网址 are disadvantaged in the market. This may be particularly acute in Sidney where seniors are such a large portion of the population and many are selling single-family homes to downsize into comparatively less expensive condominiums. The consequence of this has been that working-age adults, particularly renters, are struggling to find or afford housing in Sidney.B次元官网网址

B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 scary to think about that many people in bad situations because of housing,B次元官网网址 said Berry, who sees people living in their cars leave for work every day because theyB次元官网网址檙e unable to find or afford housing. B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 tragic.B次元官网网址


 

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Katherine Engqvist

About the Author: Katherine Engqvist

I took on the role of Bureau Chief when we created the Greater Victoria editorial hub in 2018.
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