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Trudeau to meet unhappy caucus today, hereB次元官网网址檚 what you need to know

Undisclosed number of Liberal MPs who have signed on to the effort to oust the prime minister
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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrives to Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will face down his own caucus members in a hotly anticipated meeting this morning, as several of them plan to try to convince him to step aside.

Rumours have circulated for weeks about an undisclosed number of Liberal MPs who have signed on to the effort to oust the prime minister in the hopes of improving the partyB次元官网网址檚 chances in the next election.

That promises to make the regular weekly caucus meeting on Parliament Hill extra tense, as Trudeau has showed no signs of stepping down from the top job.

TrudeauB次元官网网址檚 personal poll numbers plummeted more than a year ago, and successive byelection losses have compounded concerns about his leadership.

The MPs have no formal mechanism to depose Trudeau as leader, which means the decision is ultimately up to him.

ItB次元官网网址檚 not yet clear how many MPs will confront Trudeau, or exactly what message they plan to deliver behind closed doors.

HereB次元官网网址檚 what you need to know ahead of this meeting.

Why do some MPs want Trudeau to step down?

Polls have shown that TrudeauB次元官网网址檚 popularity has waned among Canadians for more than a year and some MPs believe he wonB次元官网网址檛 be able to lead the Liberal party to victory again in the next election.

Where TrudeauB次元官网网址檚 popularity once helped lift his party up, the dissatisfaction Canadians now have about his leadership is dragging the party down.

ItB次元官网网址檚 an increasingly urgent concern for Liberals as a fall election became a much more likely possibility. In September the NDP ended their supply and confidence agreement with the Liberals and will now decide on support for the government on a case-by-case basis. The Bloc Qu茅b茅cois has also issued the Liberals an end-of-October ultimatum to support a pension bill before the Bloc pulls its support.

While some MPs have previously said Trudeau should go, a movement to oust him began to gain steam in the first two weeks of October while Trudeau was overseas at international summits in France and Laos. He cancelled plans to attend the Commonwealth summit in Samoa this week as domestic issues bubble at home.

Liberal MP Sean Casey was the first to publicly confirm that he signed a letter calling for TrudeauB次元官网网址檚 resignation but hasnB次元官网网址檛 said how many other MPs have joined him.

On Monday, Casey said Canadians are no longer listening to Trudeau and that he has become a distraction.

B次元官网网址淭hereB次元官网网址檚 been baggage accumulated. People have tuned him out,B次元官网网址 Casey told reporters.

Most cabinet ministers have spoken out in TrudeauB次元官网网址檚 defence but some have acknowledged WednesdayB次元官网网址檚 meeting could be tense.

ItB次元官网网址檚 highly unlikely that Trudeau would step down as a result of WednesdayB次元官网网址檚 meeting, said Scott Reid, who worked as the director of communications for former prime minister Paul Martin.

However, he said the situation will nonetheless hang over him as the next election looms.

B次元官网网址淓ven someone with the record of success and the tremendous reserves of confidence that Justin Trudeau enjoys, I think thatB次元官网网址檚 going to weigh on you,B次元官网网址 Reid said.

B次元官网网址淵ouB次元官网网址檙e still left with the heavy weight of dissent toward your leadership, and youB次元官网网址檝e got to carry that around.B次元官网网址

What are TrudeauB次元官网网址檚 options?

If he decides to capitulate to the MPsB次元官网网址 demands, Trudeau could announce he will step down immediately, or he could announce he wonB次元官网网址檛 run for re-election.

So far he has been steadfast in his assertion that he is going nowhere, including Tuesday morning when he said B次元官网网址渘oB次元官网网址 when asked if his leadership was in danger.

If he changes his mind, he could stay on until a new leader is chosen, or resign immediately. If he does the latter, an interim leader would fill in to head the party while a leadership race takes place.

If he resigns while his party is still in power, it could leave the Liberals vulnerable to an early election. Without a permanent Liberal leader, the NDP might see a better chance for their own fortunes and vote against the government in the next confidence motion.

Trudeau could prevent that by proroguing Parliament B次元官网网址 which would essentially terminate the current session and hit the reset button, which could allow time for a Liberal leadership race if he did step down.

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said Tuesday the government has no intention of proroguing.

Can MPs force him to step down, or at least force a leadership review?

There is no mechanism that would allow the Liberal caucus to force TrudeauB次元官网网址檚 resignation because the Liberal caucus did not opt to endorse a bill that would give Liberal MPs the ability to force a leadership review from within the caucus.

The Conservatives were the only party to opt in to the Reform Act after the last election, and it was that which led to the secret ballot vote that ousted their former leader, Erin OB次元官网网址橳oole, in early 2022.

Neither is there one to force a leadership review from the party as a whole B次元官网网址 in fact, the partyB次元官网网址檚 constitution doesnB次元官网网址檛 have a mechanism for such a review, unless the party has been defeated in a general election.

What would a Liberal leadership race look like?

If Trudeau does resign, the national president of the party must call a board meeting within 27 days to discuss the leadership race. The board must create two committees, one to manage the expenses for the leadership contest and one to plan, organize and carry out the vote.

Potential nominees must deliver their nomination at least 90 days before the vote.

If a leadership race happens it will likely be on the short side, said Reid.

B次元官网网址淭ypically, when youB次元官网网址檙e in government, particularly if youB次元官网网址檙e in a precarious minority Parliament, you would think that the race would likely be shorter because you donB次元官网网址檛 want to go long without a prime minister whoB次元官网网址檚 also the leader of his party,B次元官网网址 he said.

However, he said itB次元官网网址檚 quite uncommon for a ruling party with a minority to hold a leadership race.

Who would run to replace Trudeau?

There is a growing number of cabinet ministers on a list of possible successors, some just through the rumour mill, while some have begun quietly organizing for a future run whenever it may be.

Those lists of potential candidates include Freeland, Industry Minister Fran莽ois-Philippe Champagne, Foreign Affairs Minister M茅lanie Joly, Housing Minister Sean Fraser, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Treasury Board President Anita Anand.

Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney and former B.C. Premier Christy Clark have both hinted at a possible run as well.

Carney was tapped in September to lead the LiberalsB次元官网网址 economic task force ahead of the next election and has been flirting with a run for politics for years.

On a recent episode of Uncommons, a podcast by Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith, Carney was asked whether his own name could be on a ballot at some point.

B次元官网网址淚B次元官网网址檓 taking steps that support that,B次元官网网址 said Carney, adding, B次元官网网址渢he opportunity may present itself.B次元官网网址

In a statement Monday Clark said she has B次元官网网址渘ever closed the door on the possibility of one day returning to politics.B次元官网网址

B次元官网网址淭he position of Liberal leader is not going to be available any time soon,B次元官网网址 she said.

B次元官网网址淚f that were to change, I would want to be part of the conversation on the future direction of the Liberal party and of the country.B次元官网网址





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