This yearB次元官网网址檚 international climate talks are expected to be headlined by fraught negotiations over how Canada and other wealthy countries, who have contributed a disproportionate share of planet-warming emissions, should financially compensate other nations in their fight to tackle climate change.
Many pressing questions for negotiators are on the table: How much should those wealthy countries pay? Which countries will have to contribute? And how should the money be provided?
The answers may determine just how much money developing countries could receive for everything from renewable energy projects to wetlands conservation.
Failure to achieve a new goal at the United NationB次元官网网址檚 annual climate talks may undercut confidence in major international agreements and strike a blow against efforts to limit global warming, observers say.
B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 pretty high stakes,B次元官网网址� said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, a Berlin-based climate think tank.
HereB次元官网网址檚 what you need to know about the climate finance negotiations B次元官网网址� and CanadaB次元官网网址檚 role in them B次元官网网址� as the 29th annual United Nations climate conference, or COP29, kicks off in AzerbaijanB次元官网网址檚 capital, Baku.
What is climate finance?
The UN climate talks have recognized that wealthy and historically high-emitting countries have a greater responsibility to solve the problem of climate change.
To put it in perspective, Canada and 22 other high-income countries B次元官网网址� among them, the United States, Japan, Australia and Western European nations B次元官网网址� are responsible for about half of estimated global emissions since the mid-19th century, despite making up about 12 per cent of the population. On a per-capita basis, Canada is among the most polluting countries.
Canada and those 22 other wealthy countries agreed in 2009 to mobilize $100 billion annually by 2020 to support other countries to mitigate their emissions and protect their citizens from the worst impacts of climate change. That funding has come from both public and private finance, such as government loans and grants or private sector investments in emerging green technology sectors.
For Canada, thatB次元官网网址檚 led to contributions as varied as $225,000 for solar plants in Samoa to $240 million in grants for the worldB次元官网网址檚 largest dedicated international climate fund. The Green Climate Fund has backed projects to expand JamaicaB次元官网网址檚 electric bus fleet and build one of the worldB次元官网网址檚 largest solar energy projects in Egypt.
Yet, the international $100-billion goal was only met for the first time in 2022, two years late. In some cases, developing countries often struggled to access those funds, said Soomin Han, climate finance policy analyst at Climate Action Network Canada.
B次元官网网址淭hat really led toB次元官网网址� broken trust between global north and south,B次元官网网址� said Han.
Against that backdrop, negotiating a new ambitious and fair international climate finance deal is a B次元官网网址渕oral imperative,B次元官网网址� she said.
Why is climate finance set to dominate these talks?
Countries agreed to come up with a new collective goal by 2025 to replace the $100-billion mark. With that deadline looming, negotiators are expected to hammer out the details of the new pledge at COP29.
It coincides with another deadline next year for countries to release their updated climate plans B次元官网网址� outlining how they plan to cut emissions by 2035 in an effort to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, as set out in the deal reached in Paris at COP21.
Setting a realistic climate finance goal will be key to making those plans a reality, said Catherine McKenna, CanadaB次元官网网址檚 former environment minister.
B次元官网网址淓missions needs to go down at scale, money needs to go from fossil fuels to clean (energy) at scale, and then you have to think about people,B次元官网网址� said McKenna.
B次元官网网址淎nd you canB次元官网网址檛 do any of those three things without finance.B次元官网网址�
How much does Canada owe?
Under the existing goal, Canada in 2021 doubled its international climate finance pledge to $5.3 billion over five years. A coalition of Canadian aid groups has pushed the government to at least triple that number, to $15.9 billion, for the next five-year period ending in 2031.
Naomi Johnson, co-chair of the Canadian Coalition on Climate Change and Development, or C4D, or called it a B次元官网网址渄own payment.B次元官网网址�
B次元官网网址淭hat would have to be a lot more going forward in order to achieve climate goals and reach our commitments globally,B次元官网网址� said Johnson.
It would represent just a fraction of the larger goal set to be negotiated at the talks. Several independent assessments say developing countries may need upwards of $1 trillion to meet their climate goals.
United Nations Trade and Development, a UN institution which has proposed an annual goal of $1.46 trillion by 2030, suggested it would be roughly on par with what wealthy countries spend on their military budgets and less than their combined fossil fuel subsidies.
Canada, along with other wealthy countries, has not tabled a dollar-figure proposal.
Minister of Environment and Climate Change Steven Guilbeault suggested it may not be a single amount, reflecting layers of public and private sector financing, along with multilateral commitments from institutions such as the World Bank.
Yet, a possible roadblock to figuring out how much wealthy countries owe, some observers say, may be who needs to pay.
B次元官网网址淭he new climate finance pledge is going to be really, really messy negotiations,B次元官网网址� said Catherine Abreu, director of the International Climate Politics Hub and a leading Canadian climate policy adviser.
Who pays?
The current list of 23 contributor countries is more than 30 years old. Wealthier countries, including Canada, are now suggesting that China and some Gulf states, for example, should be required to contribute to the new climate finance goal since their emissions have increased significantly as their economies have grown.
Yet, thereB次元官网网址檚 concern that some wealthy countries may wield those arguments in a bad faith effort to shirk their responsibilities after years of coming up short on their own climate finance goals, said Abreu.
B次元官网网址淐anada is also going to have to be able to play a constructive role of kind of bridging these divides,B次元官网网址� she said.
What is CanadaB次元官网网址檚 role in climate finance talks?
Guilbeault says Canada has played a central role for years in international climate finance talks.
B次元官网网址淚 think people see Canada as a reliable partner and bridge builder in these negotiations to help countries find solutions for these difficult discussions, and I certainly will be happy to try and play that role again in Baku this year,B次元官网网址� he said in a recent interview.
Alongside Germany, Canada was asked to lead the charge on getting wealthy countries to meet the previous $100-billion goal.
More recently, Canada and Switzerland were the first countries to put forward specific eligibility criteria to expand the contributor base to include new countries. CanadaB次元官网网址檚 proposal would see Russia, Saudi Arabia and China added to the list.
Canada has already shown leadership in navigating this B次元官网网址渃omplex issueB次元官网网址� said Han, the climate finance policy analyst with Climate Action Network Canada. Now, Canada must ensure negotiations over who pays donB次元官网网址檛 derail the adoption of a new goal.
B次元官网网址淚t needs to step up to build consensus between developed countries,B次元官网网址� Han said.
Where should the money go and how should it be delivered?
Johnson, the C4D co-chair, suggested how countries deliver the new climate finance goal may be more important than the dollar figure. The coalition, along with developing countries, has been pushing for a greater share of climate finance to come in the form of government grants, rather than loans that can drive developing countries further into debt.
An analysis by the International Institute for Environment and Development found small island developing nations and the group of least developed countries spent about US$59 billion repaying debts in 2022, compared with $28 billion they received in climate finance. Of that US$28 billion, about half was provided as loans, the analysis suggested.
Johnson said it was B次元官网网址渉orrendousB次元官网网址� that Canada was one of the largest providers of loans in its climate finance commitments.
Guilbeault said Canada was making progress and aiming for an even split between loans and grants in climate finance commitments, still short of the 60-40 grant-favoured split advocated for by the coalition.
B次元官网网址淢y hope is that we can get to 50-50 in the near future,B次元官网网址� he said.
Observers have also pushed countries to better divide up money for projects that help countries reduce emissions and those that help them adapt to climate change impacts.
Complicating those discussions is the question of whether the goal should also include money to help pay for the losses and damages developing countries are already facing from climate change.
While last yearB次元官网网址檚 talks kick-started a loss and damage fund, developing countries have expressed concerns that if itB次元官网网址檚 not included under the new goal, it may go underfunded.
Canada, an early supporter of that fund with a $16 million pledge, wants to keep it separate over concerns it could bog down negotiations.
The negotiations are set to tackle several other big issues, including how to transparently track the money and how to divide contributions between the public and private sector.
Jordan Omstead, The Canadian Press
