The Canadian economy entered 2018 on an unexpectedly impressive run. The country begins 2019 on a healthy note but signs of weakness have raised a key question: how long until the good times come to an end?

Through much of 2018, CanadaB次元官网网址檚 unemployment rate hovered near a 40-year low and job-creation remained strong as the evidence pointed to an economy going at close to full tilt.

The handoff was a good one, too B次元官网网址� the country had posted three-per-cent growth for all of 2017, largely thanks to strong household spending. WeB次元官网网址檒l have to wait a little for the final numbers but forecasters say 2018 has likely delivered still-sturdy growth of about two per cent.

But as 2019 approaches, there are worries the solid economic expansion is starting to show its age.

Last month, the federal governmentB次元官网网址檚 fall economic statement projected two-per-cent growth again for 2019, but many predict the number will likely come in lower following a recent drop in oil prices.

In addition to the pullback in crude prices, experts point to jitters in the financial markets, predictions the American economy B次元官网网址� a key contributor to Canadian growth B次元官网网址� will start to cool off and the United KingdomB次元官网网址檚 difficult divorce from the European Union, which could ripple across the global economy.

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ThereB次元官网网址檚 also potential for an even bigger threat: an escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing.

On trade, Canada made it through a year filled with significant uncertainty, including the difficult negotiation and signing of an update to the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Many of the trade unknowns, however, will carry over into the new year. The road to NAFTA 2.0B次元官网网址檚 ratification could bring more drama, punishing American steel and aluminum tariffs remain in place and the clash of superpowers between CanadaB次元官网网址檚 two biggest trading partners continues to play out.

B次元官网网址淭here are always reflections around the cyclical downturns that happen and, as IB次元官网网址檝e said, the impacts of a trade war between China and the United States could have significant impacts on the global economy B次元官网网址� negative impacts on the global economy,B次元官网网址� Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a recent interview with The Canadian Press.

B次元官网网址淲e have to make sure that we are prepared for rough waters if we encounter them.B次元官网网址�

In Canada, potential trouble spots include the combination of high household debt, rising interest rates and slowing wage growth thatB次元官网网址檚 been B次元官网网址渢erribleB次元官网网址� for about half a year following a good pickup early in 2018, says Matt Stewart, director of economics for The Conference Board of Canada.

Higher interest rates, Stewart added, have delivered a hit to household spending, which has been the primary driver of CanadaB次元官网网址檚 good economic fortunes.

B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 been a long time since weB次元官网网址檝e had a recession,B次元官网网址� Stewart said. B次元官网网址淎s of yet, I think most of the news is still positive, but there is a growing amount of risks.B次元官网网址�

With overburdened consumers expected to take a breather, business investment is seen as the next critical source of growth. But Stewart said the transition has yet to materialize because investment has underperformed, likely due to competitiveness concerns. Businesses arenB次元官网网址檛 sure whether CanadaB次元官网网址檚 the best place to put their money.

In an effort to boost investment, Ottawa announced billions of dollars worth of corporate tax incentives in its fall statement. Taxpayers will have to wait and see if the federal changes will be enough to encourage more companies to invest in Canada.

Craig Alexander, chief economist of Deloitte, said the economy will continue to have healthy growth in 2019, but notes itB次元官网网址檚 due for some moderation.

B次元官网网址淲e are in the late stages of a business cycle,B次元官网网址� he said. B次元官网网址淭hat doesnB次元官网网址檛 mean that a recession is around the corner, but we need to recognize that weB次元官网网址檙e 10 years into an economic recovery, expansion. Business cycles are typically eight to 10 years long.B次元官网网址�

Alexander added markets are probably overreacting to the possibility that another downturn could be almost upon us. He thinks the more likely case is that growth will continue to slow.

The economyB次元官网网址檚 evolution will have different impacts depending where one lives, he added.

For example, the energy sector faces big challenges.

Part of it comes from the recent plunge in oil prices, but thereB次元官网网址檚 also been an extra discount on the price of western Canadian crude caused by transportation bottlenecks out of the Alberta oilpatch.

B次元官网网址淭his is sad news for Alberta,B次元官网网址� Alexander said. B次元官网网址淭heyB次元官网网址檝e only barely recovered from the last recession.B次元官网网址�

Ottawa offered assistance this month in the form of a $1.6-billion aid package to support oil and gas companies.

Alberta, however, wants federal help to move its oil to new markets.

OntarioB次元官网网址檚 industrial sector will also face a big hurdle in 2019. General Motors has announced plans to shutter its plant in Oshawa later in the year, which will put 2,500 people out of work and inflict economic pain on the region.

Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter said Canada already took a small step back in 2018 B次元官网网址� and he expects growth to slow further.

B次元官网网址淛ust looking at financial markets thereB次元官网网址檚 obviously a lot of concern that we are getting to a late stage of the (economic) cycle,B次元官网网址� Porter said. B次元官网网址淲e donB次元官网网址檛 believe that recession risks are especially high at this point, but we do think the North American economy will cool in 2019.B次元官网网址�

Andy Blatchford, The Canadian Press

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