It doesnB次元官网网址檛 happen often, but itB次元官网网址檚 happening tonight: Donald Trump is spurning the chance to appear on prime-time television.
That makes the Republican presidential debate in Milwaukee a rare and perhaps critical opportunity for the bulk of TrumpB次元官网网址檚 rivals to make their case to a national audience B次元官网网址� many of them for the first time.
Make no mistake, however, the former presidentB次元官网网址檚 presence will be felt.
B次元官网网址淎s I like to say, heB次元官网网址檚 in the room whether or not heB次元官网网址檚 in the room,B次元官网网址� said Steven D. Cohen, a communications professor at the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School in Baltimore, Md.
B次元官网网址淓ach candidate is trying to have a breakout moment. And whether they get that through an image, an attack or a memorable statement, they have to break out. Because right now Trump is far and away the front-runner.B次元官网网址�
The rest of them, of course, are decidedly not.
Not even Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the man many observers and supporters had tapped back in January as the heir apparent, only to watch an uninspired, charisma-free campaign drag his poll numbers into the mid-teens.
B次元官网网址淚B次元官网网址檒l tell you, heB次元官网网址檚 got to walk a little bit of a tightrope in how he talks about Trump,B次元官网网址� Cohen said.
B次元官网网址淗e has to show that he has the chops, that he has what it takes to take on Joe Biden, but he has to do it without alienating pro-Trump voters B次元官网网址� or even without alienating Republicans in general.B次元官网网址�
Under normal, pre-Trump circumstances, the contest would be all but over. A CBS B次元官网网址 poll out this week showed the former president with a commanding 62 per cent lead among likely Republican primary voters.
B次元官网网址淎s long as Trump commands a solid, committed base, heB次元官网网址檚 in control,B次元官网网址� said Mark Rozell, a public policy professor at George Mason University in Arlington, Va.
Through four separate criminal indictments B次元官网网址� Trump plans to surrender in Georgia on Wednesday, quashing any post-debate coverage of his rivals B次元官网网址� that base has shown no signs of abandoning him, Rozell said.
B次元官网网址淧arty leaders and donors want nothing more than for Trump to plead a deal and step aside from running,B次元官网网址� he said.
B次元官网网址淕iven TrumpB次元官网网址檚 intense base support, they are not saying out loud that they would like the party to move on. Ultimately, they fear he is not a strong general election candidate and will sink Republicans down-ticket.B次元官网网址�
For the moment, at least, the polls suggest otherwise. But TrumpB次元官网网址檚 escalating legal challenges also help explain why DeSantis is still in the race.
B次元官网网址淯nder other circumstances B次元官网网址� with donors abandoning him and his polls lagging B次元官网网址� DeSantis would depart early and live to fight another day,B次元官网网址� Rozell said.
B次元官网网址淕iven that he remains second choice still for many, he has an incentive to stay in the race in case Trump exits.B次元官网网址�
That puts the man once billed as a Republican Trump-slayer in an unenviable position: polling at a dismal 16 per cent, according to the CBS B次元官网网址 poll, and yet likely to be a popular target on the debate stage.
Another hopeful looking to boost his national profile will be Vivek Ramaswamy, a former biotech entrepreneur who likes to channel Trump-style disdain for traditional political guardrails to curry favour with the MAGA set.
The self-described B次元官网网址淎merica First conservativeB次元官网网址� and B次元官网网址淎merican nationalistB次元官网网址� has been polling recently in third place behind Trump and DeSantis, leading a pack of would-be contenders that has yet to crack double digits.
B次元官网网址淭hree hours of solid debate prep this morning,B次元官网网址� Ramaswamy said Tuesday on the social media platform X alongside a video of him playing tennis shirtless.
B次元官网网址淩amaswamy, who is this incredible, upstart, young, telegenic, successful business person, wants to get as much attention as possible,B次元官网网址� said Cohen.
B次元官网网址淚 think getting attacked by DeSantis or other candidates, for him, is a great thing, because it only increases his stature.B次元官网网址�
Chasing Ramaswamy in the CBS poll was former vice-president Mike Pence at five per cent, followed by South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott at three per cent.
Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor whoB次元官网网址檚 not shy about attacking Trump directly, was tied with Nikki Haley, a former South Carolina governor and the only woman in the field, at two per cent.
B次元官网网址淐hris Christie is the most interesting candidate on the Republican side,B次元官网网址� Cohen said. B次元官网网址淗eB次元官网网址檚 the only one whoB次元官网网址檚 willing to take on Donald Trump head on. HeB次元官网网址檚 willing to say what no other Republican is willing to say. And heB次元官网网址檚 willing to do that publicly.B次元官网网址�
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former New Hampshire governor Asa Hutchinson, who round out the debate field, were tied near the bottom of the poll at one per cent each.
A handful of other candidates, including Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, former Texas congressman Will Hurd, conservative radio personality Larry Elder and Michigan executive Perry Johnson did not qualify to participate.
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