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TrumpB次元官网网址檚 return: What Canada can learn from the 2024 presidential campaign

Trump has not yet moved into the White House but his victory sent shockwaves around the world
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President-elect Donald Trump speaks at AmericaFest, Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024, in Phoenix. THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP-Rick Scuteri

Donald Trump smiled wide in front of cheering supporters after millions of Americans went to the polls, choosing the divisive Republican leader as the next president of the United States in an astonishing comeback that signalled an American turn to isolationism, protectionism and tariffs.

B次元官网网址淲e overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible and it is now clear that weB次元官网网址檝e achieved the most incredible political thing. Look what happened, is this crazy?B次元官网网址 Trump said on Nov. 6 in Florida, appearing shocked by wins in key battleground states.

B次元官网网址淏ut itB次元官网网址檚 a political victory that our country has never seen before, nothing like this.B次元官网网址

Trump has not yet moved into the White House but his victory sent shockwaves around the world. Not even a month after the election, Trump brought back B次元官网网址淭witter diplomacy,B次元官网网址 posting on social media threats of devastating 25 per cent tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

B次元官网网址淭hat sense that Canada was a special friend and therefore was protected, I think is dead,B次元官网网址 said Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 still special but itB次元官网网址檚 not the bulletproof shield that we all thought it was.B次元官网网址

Bombshell political events in Ottawa this month have added even more uncertainty around the Canada-U.S. relationship. Chrystia FreelandB次元官网网址檚 sudden resignation as finance minister has touched off growing calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down, a move he is reflecting on over the holidays.

As the world prepares for a second Trump administration, experts say there are lessons to be learned from the tumultuous and unrelenting 2024 campaign.

The road to the ballot box was long and chaotic. Hark back to spring when many Americans, discontented by what they saw as a repeat of the 2020 election between Trump and President Joe Biden, werenB次元官网网址檛 engaged with either party.

Everything changed during the June 27 presidential debate. Backroom concerns about the DemocratB次元官网网址檚 age and mental acuity were on full display. Biden, with a raspy voice, stumbled over his words and lost his train of thought.

Questions swirled whether Biden could remain on the ticket.

A few weeks later, a gunman opened fire at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania. The image that surfaced after the assassination attempt was stark: Trump pumping his fist into the air with an American flag in the background as blood trickled down the side of his face.

It became a watershed moment, contrasting Trump rising strong against his diminished Democrat opponent.

Soon after, Biden bowed to pressure from his own party. He endorsed Kamala Harris, his second-in-command, as he dropped out of the race on July 21.

The vice-president moved quickly to shore up support and her early campaign built on the idea of B次元官网网址渏oyB次元官网网址 and kitchen-table issues, using memes, celebrities and coconuts. While it reinvigorated Democrats, the excitement didnB次元官网网址檛 spread beyond the partyB次元官网网址檚 base.

Harris continued to be dogged by the Biden administrationB次元官网网址檚 legacy at the border and she was unable to persuade voters concerned about their pocketbooks during the 107-day campaign.

Trump successfully tapped into AmericanB次元官网网址檚 fears about the economy and illegal immigration while promising to slash federal spending. He pledged sweeping tariffs and a retreat from international institutions.

B次元官网网址淚 will govern by a simple motto: Promises made, promises kept. WeB次元官网网址檙e going to keep our promises,B次元官网网址 Trump said in his victory speech.

A dismissive attitude about Trump also B次元官网网址渄ied this year,B次元官网网址 Sands said.

B次元官网网址淓ven though it took a long time, (thereB次元官网网址檚) a recognition that he does represent something genuine and it has political support.B次元官网网址

The American system of government is going through a once-in-a-generation shift, said Alasdair Roberts, a professor of public policy at University of Massachusetts Amherst. Ideas about what governments should be doing are changing in fundamental ways.

It happened in the 1930s with former president Franklin D. RooseveltB次元官网网址檚 New Deal programs to help people recover from the Great Depression. There was another shift in the 1980s under former president Ronald Reagan and the advent of market-oriented policies.

Trump has been able to ride a wave of dissatisfaction swelling from the global financial crisis that started in 2007. Data from Gallup shows people have felt the country is heading the wrong direction for at least 20 years.

The result: a deeply divided U.S.

Roberts said Canada will need to grapple with the fact its closest neighbour and largest trading partner will be B次元官网网址渦nstable and unpredictable for years.B次元官网网址 Gambling CanadaB次元官网网址檚 future on the notion of a shared special relationship is just B次元官网网址渁 recipe for disaster,B次元官网网址 he added.

B次元官网网址淲e need to get our act together,B次元官网网址 Roberts said.

That means more intensive diplomacy, he said. The federal governmentB次元官网网址檚 Team Canada connected with all levels of elected American officials in both parties for months ahead of the election and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau revived a cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations a little more than 24 hours after TrumpB次元官网网址檚 win was secured.

Trudeau also flew to Mar-a-Lago for a dinner with the Republican leader last month.

Sands said Canada is playing good defence, but Ottawa canB次元官网网址檛 just B次元官网网址渁void bad things from happening.B次元官网网址

Ottawa must demonstrate Canada is a valuable partner. If Canada faces fiscal or regulatory constraints, Sands said, the U.S. will start to look elsewhere.

That could be challenging in the face of fresh threats to bring down the Liberal government, TrudeauB次元官网网址檚 leadership up in the air, and a high potential for a change in government when Canadians go to the polls in 2025.

There was increasing doubt among U.S. lawmakers during the Biden administration that Canada can actually do things to help America, he added.

For example, Sands said Canada talks a lot about critical minerals, but more can be done to deliver the sought-after resource. He noted the U.S. Department of Defense has made significant investments in Canadian mining as part of the U.S.-Canadian Joint Action Plan on Critical Minerals.

Canada can also be a proactive partner in artificial intelligence regulation or in the Indo-Pacific.

B次元官网网址淭hereB次元官网网址檚 a lot at stake right now,B次元官网网址 Sands said.

Kelly Geraldine Malone, The Canadian Press





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