As Vladimir Putin heads for as RussiaB次元官网网址檚 president, thereB次元官网网址檚 little electoral drama in the race. What he does after he crosses the finish line is whatB次元官网网址檚 drawing attention and, for many observers, provoking anxiety.
The voting that concludes on Sunday is all but certain to allow Putin to remain in office until 2030, giving him a full three decades of leading Russia as either president or prime minister.
The heft of that long tenure and the thorough gives Putin a very strong B次元官网网址� and perhaps unrestrained B次元官网网址� hand.
That position is bolstered by the despite wide-ranging Western sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine.
ItB次元官网网址檚 also strengthened by MoscowB次元官网网址檚 incremental but consistent battlefield advances in recent months, flagging support for military aid to Kyiv from the United States and other quarters, and growing skepticism in some Western countries over more progressive social attitudes that echoes PutinB次元官网网址檚 push for B次元官网网址渢raditional values.B次元官网网址�
Putin, in short, would head into a new term with few obvious restraints, and that could manifest itself quickly in major new actions.
B次元官网网址淩ussiaB次元官网网址檚 presidential election is not so important as what will come after. Putin has often postponed unpopular moves until after elections,B次元官网网址� Bryn Rosenfeld, a Cornell University professor who studies post-Communist politics, said in a commentary.
Probably the most unpopular move he could make at home would be to order a second military mobilization to fight in Ukraine; the first, in September 2022, sparked protests, and a wave of Russians fled the country to avoid being called up. However unpopular a second mobilization might be, it could also mollify relatives of the soldiers who were drafted 18 months ago.
Some in Russia believe it could happen.
B次元官网网址淩ussian leaders are now talking of B次元官网网址榗onsolidating the whole of Russian society around its defense needs,B次元官网网址橞次元官网网址� Brian Michael Jenkins, a senior adviser at the RAND Corporation think tank told The Associated Press.
B次元官网网址淭he precise meaning of this phrase is not entirely clear, but it suggests that RussiaB次元官网网址檚 leadership understands that the war Putin describes will go on for a long time, and therefore resources must be mobilized,B次元官网网址� he added. B次元官网网址淚n other words, Russian society must be organized for perpetual warfare.B次元官网网址�
But Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, says Putin doesnB次元官网网址檛 need a mobilization partly because many Russians from poorer regions have signed up to fight in order to get higher pay than what they can earn in their limited opportunities at home.
In addition, PutinB次元官网网址檚 apparent confidence that the war is turning in RussiaB次元官网网址檚 favor is likely to make him continue to insist that the only way to end the conflict is for Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table, she said. B次元官网网址淲hich, in fact, means capitulation.B次元官网网址�
While support for Ukraine lags in Washington, both French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski have said recently that sending troops to back Kyiv is at least a hypothetical possibility.
With those statements in mind, Putin may be motivated to test the resolve of NATO.
Alexandra Vacroux, executive director of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University, posits that Russia within several years will make an attempt to assess NATOB次元官网网址檚 commitment to , the allianceB次元官网网址檚 common defense guarantee under which an attack on one member is considered an attack on all.
B次元官网网址淚 donB次元官网网址檛 think that Putin thinks that he needs to be physically, militarily stronger than all of the other countries. He just needs them to be weaker and more fractured. And so the question for him is like B次元官网网址� instead of worrying so much about making myself stronger, how can I make everyone else weaker?B次元官网网址� she said.
B次元官网网址淪o in order to do that, itB次元官网网址檚 like you have to find a situation where you could test Article 5,B次元官网网址� and if the response is mild or uncertain B次元官网网址渢hen youB次元官网网址檝e shown that, like NATO is just a paper tiger,B次元官网网址� Vacroux said.
Russia could run such a test without overt military action, she said, adding, B次元官网网址淵ou could imagine, like, one of the big questions is what kind of cyberattack constitutes a threat to attack?B次元官网网址�
Although it is not a NATO member, is increasingly worried about becoming a Russian target. Since the invasion of Ukraine, neighboring Moldova has faced crises that have raised fears in its capital of Chisinau that the country is also in the KremlinB次元官网网址檚 crosshairs.
The congress in MoldovaB次元官网网址檚 separatist Transnistria region, where Russia bases about 1,500 soldiers as nominal peacekeepers, have appealed to Moscow for diplomatic B次元官网网址減rotectionB次元官网网址� because of alleged increasing pressure from Moldova.
That appeal potentially leaves B次元官网网址渁 lot of room for escalation,B次元官网网址� said Cristain Cantir, a Moldovan international relations professor at Oakland University. B次元官网网址淚 think itB次元官网网址檚 useful to see the congress and the resolution as a warning to Moldova that Russia may get more involved in Transnistria if Chisinau does not make concessions.B次元官网网址�
On the Russian home front, more repressive measures could come in a new Putin term, even though opposition supporters and independent media already are cowed or silenced.
Stanovaya suggested that Putin himself does not drive repressive measures but that he approves such actions that are devised by others in the expectation that these are what the Kremlin leader wants.
B次元官网网址淢any players are trying to survive and to adapt, and they compete against each other and often they have contradictory interests,B次元官网网址� she said. B次元官网网址淎nd they are trying all together in parallel to secure their own priorities and the stability of the regime.B次元官网网址�
Russia last year B次元官网网址渕ovementB次元官网网址� by declaring it to be extremist in what officials said was a fight for traditional values like those espoused by the Russian Orthodox Church in the face of Western influence. Courts also banned gender transitioning.
Ben Noble, a lecturer on Russian politics at University College London, said he believes that the LGBTQ+ community could face further repression in a new Putin term.
They B次元官网网址渃an be held up as an import from the decadent West,B次元官网网址� he said.
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