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Russia tries to project order after mercenary revolt as uncertainty swirls

MoscowBԪַs mayor announced end to the BԪַcounterterrorism regimeBԪַ imposed on the capital Saturday
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Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group military company, right, sits inside a military vehicle posing for a selfie photo with a local civilian on a street in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, Saturday, June 24, 2023, prior to leaving an area of the headquarters of the Southern Military District. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that PrigozhinBԪַs troops who joined him in the uprising will not face prosecution and those who did not will be offered contracts by the Defense Ministry. After the deal was reached Saturday, Prigozhin ordered his troops to halt their march on Moscow and retreat to field camps in Ukraine, where they have been fighting alongside Russian troops. (AP Photo)

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made his first public appearance since a , inspecting troops in Ukraine in a video released Monday aimed at projecting a sense of order after the countryBԪַs most serious political crisis in decades.

But about his fate, that of leader and his private army, the impact on the war in Ukraine, and even the political future of President Vladimir Putin.

A feud between leader Prigozhin and RussiaBԪַs military brass that has festered throughout the war erupted into a mutiny that saw the mercenaries leave Ukraine to seize a military headquarters in a southern Russian city and roll seemingly unopposed for hundreds of miles toward Moscow, before turning around after less than 24 hours on Saturday.

The Kremlin said it had made a deal that Prigozhin will and receive an amnesty, along with his soldiers. There was no confirmation of his whereabouts Monday, although a popular Russian news channel on Telegram reported he was seen at a hotel in the Belarusian capital, Minsk.

Russian media reported a criminal probe against Prigozhin continued, and some lawmakers called for his head.

In a return to at least superficial normality, MoscowBԪַs mayor announced an end to the BԪַcounterterrorism regimeBԪַ imposed on the capital Saturday, when troops and armored vehicles set up checkpoints on the outskirts and authorities tore up roads leading into the city.

The Defense Ministry video of Shoigu came as Russian media speculated that he and other military leaders have lost PutinBԪַs confidence and could be replaced.

Shoigu was shown in a helicopter and then meeting with officers at a military headquarters in Ukraine. The video was widely broadcast on Russian media, including state-controlled television. It was unclear when it was shot.

General Staff chief Gen. Valery Gerasimov, also a main target of PrigozhinBԪַs ire, has not appeared in public.

It was unclear what would ultimately happen to Prigozhin and his forces under the deal purportedly brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

Though the mutiny was brief, it was not bloodless. Russian media reported that several military helicopters and a military communications plane were shot down by Wagner forces, killing at least 15. The Defense Ministry has not commented. Prigozhin denied there were any casualties on his side, but media reports indicated the airstrikes hit some Wagner vehicles, and messaging app channels featured images of the damage.

The U.S. had intelligence that Prigozhin had been building up his forces near the border with Russia for some time, suggesting the revolt was planned. That conflicts with PrigozhinBԪַs claim his rebellion was a response to an attack on his field camps in Ukraine on Friday by the Russian military, which he said killed a large number of his men. The Defense Ministry denied it.

RussiaBԪַs RIA Novosti state news agency cited unidentified sources in the Prosecutor GeneralBԪַs office as saying the criminal case against Prigozhin hasnBԪַt been closed, despite earlier Kremlin statements. The Interfax news agency carried a similar report.

Should the case continue, PrigozhinBԪַs presence in Belarus BԪַ a staunch Kremlin ally BԪַ would offer little protection against arrest and extradition.

It was unclear what resources Prigozhin has to draw on, and how much of his substantial wealth he can access. Police searching his St. Petersburg office on the day of the rebellion found 4 billion rubles ($48 million) in trucks outside the building, according to Russian media reports confirmed by the Wagner boss. He claimed the money was intended to pay his soldiersBԪַ families.

Several Russian lawmakers called for tight regulations of private military companies under a new law set to be considered BԪַ and some argued that Prigozhin must be punished.

Andrei Gurulev, a retired general and current lawmaker who has rowed with the mercenary leader, said Prigozhin and his right-hand man Dmitry Utkin, a former military officer who runs Wagner, deserve BԪַa bullet in the head.BԪַ

BԪַI firmly believe that traitors in wartime must be executed,BԪַ he said.

Prigozhin appeared nonchalant in some of the last video taken during the rebellion. As a convoy carrying him in an SUV drove out of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don after its brief occupation Saturday, he was asked how he viewed the result of his revolt, according to footage posted on Russian social media.

BԪַItBԪַs normal, we have cheered everyone up,BԪַ the mercenary chief responded.

Before the uprising, Prigozhin had with expletive-ridden insults for months, attacking them for failing to provide his troops with enough ammunition during the fight for the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, the warBԪַs longest and bloodiest battle.

PrigozhinBԪַs rift with the military dates back for years, to RussiaBԪַs intervention in Syria, where Wagner forces also were active.

Putin stood back from the feud and Shoigu and Gerasimov remained mum, possibly reflecting uncertainty about the presidentBԪַs support. Observers said that by failing to end the feud, Putin had encouraged Prigozhin to raise the stakes dramatically.

Some analysts saw PrigozhinBԪַs revolt as a desperate move to save Wagner from being dismantled after an order that all private military companies sign contracts with the Defense Ministry by July 1.

Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya said on Twitter that PrigozhinBԪַs mutiny BԪַwasnBԪַt a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin,BԪַ but a desperate move amid his escalating rift with RussiaBԪַs military leadership.

While Prigozhin could get out of crisis alive, he doesnBԪַt have a political future in Russia under Putin, Stanovaya said.

Alex Younger, former head of BritainBԪַs MI6 intelligence agency, said it appeared that BԪַneither side was in controlBԪַ during the rebellion.

He told the BBC that Prigozhin BԪַdidnBԪַt have a plan, he didnBԪַt have enough peopleBԪַ to succeed, while Putin looked indecisive, first vowing to crush the rebels, then striking a deal.

BԪַEveryone comes out of this weaker,BԪַ Younger said.

Russian media and commentators speculated that Shoigu could be replaced, but that Putin, who avoids making decisions under pressure, would likely wait before announcing a shakeup.

Putin held calls Monday with the leaders of Iran and Qatar, the Kremlin said, and addressed a forum of youth engineers in a pre-recorded video message that contained no mention of the mutiny.

It was not yet clear what the fissures opened by the 24-hour rebellion would mean for the war in Ukraine, where Western officials say RussiaBԪַs troops suffer low morale. WagnerBԪַs forces were key to RussiaBԪַs only land victory in months, in Bakhmut.

The U.K. Ministry of Defense said Monday that Ukraine had BԪַgained impetusBԪַ in , making progress north and south of the town.

U.S. President Joe Biden and leaders of several of UkraineBԪַs European allies discussed events in Russia over the weekend, but Western officials have been muted in their public comments.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told broadcaster RT that U.S. Ambassador Lynne Tracy contacted Russian representatives Saturday to stress that the U.S. was not involved in the mutiny and considered it an internal Russian matter. There was no immediate confirmation from the U.S., although Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that U.S. officials had BԪַengagedBԪַ with Russia to stress the importance of protecting U.S. citizens and interests.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Monday that BԪַthe events over the weekend are an internal Russian matter.BԪַ Max Blain, spokesman for U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, said BԪַissues of regime in Russia are for Russia to resolve, first and foremost.BԪַ

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, speaking to reporters before a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg, said the revolt showed that the war is BԪַcracking RussiaBԪַs political system.BԪַ

BԪַThe monster that Putin created with Wagner, the monster is biting him now,BԪַ Borrell said. BԪַThe monster is acting against his creator.BԪַ

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