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How do we evaluate risk? The psychological process of making decisions in a pandemic

The physical signals of the pandemic are inescapable too
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The University of Victoria has closed Cedar Corner, a large tract of property made available to the public for off-leash dog walking, to further mitigate the spread of COVID-19. (Travis Paterson/B次元官网网址 Staff)

Shopping at a local boutique, dining on a restaurant patio, taking a stroll through a park on a sunny afternoon.

The normally trivial decisions we make about everyday activities are becoming more significant as society begins to reopen following months of shutdown during the COVID-19 pandemic.

There are overarching questions attached to our decisions now B次元官网网址 whatB次元官网网址檚 the risk? And how do we calculate it?

Experts in psychology and risk analysis say that while our decision-making process is the same as it was before the pandemic hit, COVID-19 is forcing us to evaluate our choices in a much more deliberate way.

B次元官网网址淥ne of the elements of our risk perception is driven by whatB次元官网网址檚 currently occupying our attention,B次元官网网址 said Derek Koehler, a psychology professor at the University of Waterloo. B次元官网网址淎nd right now, COVID-19 is everywhere. ItB次元官网网址檚 really the only thing weB次元官网网址檙e thinking about and talking about.

B次元官网网址淪o thatB次元官网网址檚 heightening our senses that these activities are now suddenly risky.B次元官网网址

The physical signals of the pandemic are inescapable too, Koehler said.

People wearing face masks in public, physical distancing markers on grocery store floors and clerks behind Plexiglas barriers all serve as reminders of the risk associated with everyday life B次元官网网址 at least for now.

Koehler expects our reaction to those signals to change as we get more used to them, just as we grew accustomed to added security measures in airports after the 9-11 terrorist attacks.

B次元官网网址淭hese signs in our environment are triggering our system, saying that thereB次元官网网址檚 something unfamiliar here,B次元官网网址 Koehler said. B次元官网网址滱nd unfamiliar stuff tends to feel scary.B次元官网网址

Dale Griffin, a professor of marketing and behavioural science at the University of British Columbia, says our basis for determining risk has also shifted since the pandemic started.

Decisions previously explained by function B次元官网网址 how much time we have to do a specific activity, how much it costs B次元官网网址 are now made with safety as the ultimate focus.

But how do we determine whatB次元官网网址檚 safe?

Griffin said our perceptions are shaped by what we see. And we assess risk in our scenarios by seeking B次元官网网址渃omparable examplesB次元官网网址 from others.

B次元官网网址淔or most people, the evidence they bring to mind, the analogies they bring to mind come from what theyB次元官网网址檙e seeing in the media,B次元官网网址 Griffin said. B次元官网网址淎re they seeing crowded emergency rooms in New York? Are they seeing busy shoppers in Tennessee? Are they hearing from their friends about someoneB次元官网网址檚 grandmother who died?

B次元官网网址淪o those pieces of evidence intuitively are what we have to pull into our decision-making.B次元官网网址

This can be harmful during the age of social media, Griffin said, when it can be difficult to separate fact from theory.

B次元官网网址淲e can only decide on risk on the basis of the evidence we can bring to our mind, and thatB次元官网网址檚 going to be very dependent on what kind of media we watch and what kind of stories weB次元官网网址檝e heard from other people,B次元官网网址 he said.

Koehler, whose research focuses on assessment of uncertainty in everyday planning, says there are two sides to decision-making: B次元官网网址渢he thinking side, and the feeling side.B次元官网网址

The thinking side is where we gather facts and evidence to make a rational judgment, determining consequences and the probability of a bad outcome.

The feeling side, meanwhile, is our emotional response when faced with different risks.

B次元官网网址淎nd that plays a big role as well,B次元官网网址 Koehler said. B次元官网网址滻 think weB次元官网网址檙e all kind of familiar with that.B次元官网网址

Koehler described the feeling side as B次元官网网址渕ore about preferences and values B次元官网网址 and how important to us these different things are.B次元官网网址

That could help explain why some people have been seemingly defying the rules of physical distancing over the last 10 weeks. While most appear to have taken a cautious approach, others might have disagreed with the level of risk in the first place and determined the B次元官网网址渃ost of their social isolationB次元官网网址 to be too high, Koehler said.

For those who have abided by physical distancing measures since March, Griffin believes some may be experiencing a B次元官网网址漟atigue factorB次元官网网址 that could sway their decision-making processes.

After weeks of being cautious, theyB次元官网网址檙e simply tired of the constant risk assessment. Others, meanwhile, will continue to adhere to safety measures even after theyB次元官网网址檝e been relaxed.

B次元官网网址淭hereB次元官网网址檚 been this hypothesis of a psychological fatigue from thinking about risk B次元官网网址 and how long would distancing and isolation actually manage under those fatiguing circumstances?B次元官网网址 Griffin said. B次元官网网址滷or a segment of society anyway, weB次元官网网址檝e hit that point and we see people rushing to beaches, rushing to parks, and we see that not all the policy recommendations are being followed anymore.

B次元官网网址淪o I think in an oversimplified way weB次元官网网址檙e going to see a world of three groups from now on: those that rush out due to fatigue, those that cling to their islands of safety, and a middle group B次元官网网址 thatB次元官网网址檚 probably the majority B次元官网网址 thatB次元官网网址檚 going to be guided by public policy advice.B次元官网网址

Melissa Couto, The Canadian Press

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