ItB次元官网网址檚 May 13, 2013 B次元官网网址� provincial election day in B.C.

Premier Kevin Falcon vows to hold onto his partyB次元官网网址檚 majority in the legislature in todayB次元官网网址檚 election.

Falcon is optimismtic despite Adrian Dix (NDP) and John Cummins (Conservative) successfully improving their respective partyB次元官网网址檚 popularity among B.C. voters.

B次元官网网址淪ince becoming premier I have listened to the people of this province, I have learned from the people of this province, and I have led this province decisively,B次元官网网址� Falcon says on election day 2013, reflecting back on his two years in charge.

Way back in February 2011, Falcon ultimately beat radio talk-show host Christy Clark (as well as MLAs George Abbott and Mike de Jong) to take over the job vacated by outgoing premier Gordon Campbell.

FalconB次元官网网址檚 achievements as premier have been highlighted by B次元官网网址� wait a second, this doesnB次元官网网址檛 sound right.

ItB次元官网网址檚 a shame life doesnB次元官网网址檛 give us the opportunity to explore alternate timelines B次元官网网址� a remedial chaos theory, if you will B次元官网网址� where we can see how different life would be if one thing was different, ie. if Christy Clark wasnB次元官网网址檛 chosen premier.

How well would Premier Falcon, or Premier Abbott, or Premier de Jong, be showing in the polls? Would Liberal MLAs Barry Penner and Iain Black have quit politics entirely, making way for the NDP to earn two huge by-election wins in historically Liberal ridings? Would any Liberal MLAs have defected to the B次元官网网址渧ote-splittingB次元官网网址� Conservative Party of B.C.? WeB次元官网网址檒l never know.

What we can surmise from reality, however, is that ClarkB次元官网网址檚 chances of being named premier-elect on May 13, 2013 are getting slim. For the last few months, opinion polls have gradually shown Dix, the NDP leader, overtaking Premier Clark as the publicB次元官网网址檚 preferred leader of our province. But his lead is not yet insurmountable.

Polls and pundits donB次元官网网址檛 always paint a true picture of the political landscape, but this Liberal-run term in the legislature has been dominated by some pretty divisive issues B次元官网网址� namely the HST.

And yes, British Columbians got the tax referendum they demanded, and they stuck it to the Liberals by voting to scrap the tax. But next May 13 will be the day, I predict, an even louder message will be sent.

Someone who isnB次元官网网址檛 Christy Clark will be crowned premier in 2013. As it stands right now, Adrian Dix looks like heB次元官网网址檒l be that person B次元官网网址� though the Liberals still have an out.

Despite card-carrying Liberals preferring Clark to any of her leadership adversaries back at that February 2011 convention, there was only one sitting politician (Burquitlam MLA Harry Bloy) who backed her bid.

I wonder if the other 40 some-odd Liberal MLAs could predict her election as leader wasnB次元官网网址檛 what the party would need to reverse its fortunes.

Either way, those 40-plus MLAs were right to not initially back Clark. (If only Bloy wasnB次元官网网址檛 so darn influential among party members!)

For the sake of politicking, the position the Liberals are in now leaves them few options: keep their leader, lose seats and the election in 2013 (and put the blame for that loss on anyone who votes Conservative); or ditch their leader and start anew.

For appearanceB次元官网网址� sake, IB次元官网网址檇 suggest the latter.

If the Liberals take cues from genuine public opinion, theyB次元官网网址檒l know Clark does not now have the support to win in 2013. Is waiting it out another 12 months to see if that changes worth losing an election? I donB次元官网网址檛 think so.

If Clark wants her party to succeed after her time as premier is up, she should take her cues from what Kevin Falcon said when he launched his leadership campaign: B次元官网网址淟isten to people. Learn from them. B次元官网网址� And lead decisively.B次元官网网址�

If youB次元官网网址檙e not genuinely working by all three of those rules B次元官网网址� for the sake of your province, for the sake of your party B次元官网网址� itB次元官网网址檚 time to reflect on the opportunities lost by not living in some alternate timeline where you arenB次元官网网址檛 premier.

Kyle Slavin is a reporter with the Saanich B次元官网网址.

kslavin@saanichnews.com