Barring a miracle, officials are saying the number of returning salmon to South Island spawning grounds will be B次元官网网址榓 disasterB次元官网网址� for 2017.

Numbers are down to 300 in the Colquitz River, 16 coho and chinook in Goldstream, to about 150 coho up at Fanny BayB次元官网网址檚 Rosewall Creek. ItB次元官网网址檚 possible the heavy rains, which have flooded and muddied the rivers, could be hiding hundreds, maybe thousands of fish in the many South Island spawning grounds. But itB次元官网网址檚 unlikely.

And the implications are even worse, says Gary Caton of the Esquimalt Anglers.

Related: Colquitz counts 1,100 fish, less than expected in 2016

B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 doom and gloom,B次元官网网址� said Caton, looking ahead to the typical coho three-year spawning cycle. B次元官网网址淭his reflects on the 2020 returns.B次元官网网址�

Goldstream has been hit the worst, with just 12 cohos and two chinooks to date. ColquitzB次元官网网址檚 302 is mostly coho but compared to 1,100 at this time last year, itB次元官网网址檚 not good. Same goes at Craigflower, where Caton reports 425 fish, mostly coho, but had reason to expect as much as 1,500 to 2,000.

In Craigflower and Colquitz the number of jacks, or two-year-old coho, is high relative to the number of adults. Both had nearly 200.

B次元官网网址淣ature sends the jacks in early to [help increase the spawn] and it can indicate a good year next year,B次元官网网址� Caton said.

Coho are known to trickle in as late as January but even with the high waters and muddied rivers, itB次元官网网址檚 worrisome, said Judy Ackinclose, president of both the Goldstream Hatchery and Fanny Bay Enhancement project (Rosewall Creek).

B次元官网网址淎t this point weB次元官网网址檝e had such torrential downpours, itB次元官网网址檚 been such a flood you canB次元官网网址檛 see anything,B次元官网网址� Ackinclose said. B次元官网网址淭o get the stream keepers in the river for counts is non-existent, the river is high and itB次元官网网址檚 running chocolate, you canB次元官网网址檛 see any fish.B次元官网网址�

The hope is once the rains abate, the rivers will reveal heavier than normal counts of fish, and carcasses.

WhatB次元官网网址檚 disheartening in the Goldstream River is the aggressive commercial fishery, with gill nets in the Satellite Channel approach waters of Saanich Inlet, said biologist Peter McCully, a director with the Goldstream hatchery.

B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 a wall of nets out there, plus an unregulated tribal fishery at the mouth of the river,B次元官网网址� McCully said. B次元官网网址淔ederal fisheries knows about it. I donB次元官网网址檛 blame the fisherman, theyB次元官网网址檙e making a living, I blame the way our fisheries are managed. ThatB次元官网网址檚 a personal opinion.B次元官网网址�

The Goldstream school aquarium project is at threat, as the hatchery is low on eggs to offer up for the program where elementary school kids nurture the eggs before delivering them back into the nursing grounds.

For decades Goldstream has relied on the lesser known but highly successful Mill Bay and District Conservation Society salmonid project in the Shawnigan watershed. Since the early 1980s the man-made run has counted up to 3,000 returning salmon for two out of three years. It thereby provided Goldstream with brood stock to keep Goldstream healthy.

This year is ShawniganB次元官网网址檚 down year, and it has 181 coho (and counting, but itB次元官网网址檚 mostly done). ItB次元官网网址檚 actually an increase for the unique run, said one of its directors, Ken Gray.

B次元官网网址淚t took years to get it off the ground and once it took it was two years good, one year bad, and the 181 is actually an increase,B次元官网网址� Gray said. B次元官网网址淗owever, we donB次元官网网址檛 have a lot to offer Goldstream for reintroduction. WeB次元官网网址檝e got a few saved for them.B次元官网网址�

The South Island chum run is down too, but not to the dire extent as the coho and chinook. Much of the chinook population on the Southeast side of the island has been decimated in recent years, Gray said, mostly by fishing.

ItB次元官网网址檚 believed the gill nets and seine nets in Satellite Channel are also affecting the Shawnigan numbers. Caton said this yearB次元官网网址檚 Craigflower fish, which come up the Gorge Waterway, show evidence that it was also a rough year at sea.

B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 a variation of factors, you never know exactly, but itB次元官网网址檚 not looking good,B次元官网网址� Caton said.

Chum and coho will continue to trickle in but most of the above spawning grounds expect just a few fish a week.

reporter@saanichnews.com