ItB次元官网网址檚 information that will surprise few B次元官网网址� residential construction on the West Shore is forecasted to continue booming, on the order of 9,000 housing units over the next 15 years.

For the Sooke School District, projected growth means it will need at least four more schools serving thousands of more kids, in a region with an ever shrinking land-base.

Bill Wood, with Matrix Planning, unveiled a draft version of his long-range planning report for Sooke School District trustees last week. His message to the board: start the process to locate and buy land now.

B次元官网网址淭he bottom line is youB次元官网网址檝e got a lot of growth coming,B次元官网网址� Wood said to trustees. B次元官网网址淭here is a lot of capacity in the school district. There's a lot of pressure for growth.B次元官网网址�

WoodB次元官网网址檚 report synthesizes demographic trends and development data culled from Statistics B.C. and West Shore municipal governments, among other sources. It offers a glimpse of how residential growth is expected to evolve over the next decade.

The report estimates the school district will experience a 55 per cent increase in students B次元官网网址� to about 12,500 from 8,500 now B次元官网网址� demanding a series of new or rebuilt secondary, middle and elementary schools.

B次元官网网址淔or the first time in a long time weB次元官网网址檙e seeing an uptick in the expected birthrate,B次元官网网址� Wood said. B次元官网网址淚t looks like the birthrate has hit bottom and is coming up.B次元官网网址�

ItB次元官网网址檚 a significant shift from WoodB次元官网网址檚 report in 2007, which recommended closing a handful of elementary schools in the face of haphazard development around Colwood and Langford. Glen Lake elementary was closed in June 2008, based on falling enrollment and seismic stability.

The earlier report also downplayed the impact of Westhills development on Langford. In 2007 Westhills was expected to generate about 800 homes over 15 years B次元官网网址� thatB次元官网网址檚 since been revised to more than 1,800 homes with considerably more children.

In the past two years that project has completed a number of neighbourhoods in what is still the early days of the 6,000-home, 209-hectare project.

B次元官网网址淭he area is going to have a lot of kids. (Westhills) is the single most important change from three years ago,B次元官网网址� Wood said.

Across the West Shore and Sooke, the report predicts the growth of about 12,000 more residential units over 15 years, the same as predicted in 2007, although in slightly different places. Sooke will see hundreds of more homes than first predicted, while ColwoodB次元官网网址檚 growth is revised downward by 800 homes. Langford is steady with about 6,000 more units. Wood notes the report doesnB次元官网网址檛 account for Royal Bay in Colwood or Skirt Mountain in Langford, both huge potential developments that have yet to see signs of life.

B次元官网网址淭here is a lot of change from year to year. Our housing estimates in some cases may be high,B次元官网网址� Wood said. B次元官网网址淚n some cases with Skirt Mountain and Royal Bay, we may be undercounting.

B次元官网网址淧redicting 12,000 (units) makes sense when you get 90 per cent of development in Greater Victoria happening here,B次元官网网址� Wood noted.

Another key change is the start of full-day kindergarten across the district, which Wood said has effectively ended the need for school closures. B次元官网网址淣ow two things are happening. Growth in elementary schools is stronger and full-day kindergarten has effectively added half a grade (to each school),B次元官网网址� he said. B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 a pretty big deal.B次元官网网址�

SD 62 superintendent Jim Cambridge said the report reenforces the No. 1 priority of the district B次元官网网址� building a new secondary schools near Westhills and in Royal Bay. HeB次元官网网址檚 hopeful the Ministry of Education will announce funding for the $90-million project this year.

Buying land for new schools is a challenge that can span years and decades, making the report a good headB次元官网网址檚 up on work that needs to start now, Cambridge said.

Wood calls it an B次元官网网址渋mpossible task.B次元官网网址�

B次元官网网址淵ou want schools where they are needed, but youB次元官网网址檒l always be behind,B次元官网网址� he said. B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 a very difficult thing to do.B次元官网网址�

The full long-term planning report will be posted on the SD 62 website, sd62.bc.ca in a few weeks. The district plans to hold a public forum on future planning in the spring.

editor@goldstreamgazette.com