Preventing an extra single degree of heat could make a life-or-death difference in the next few decades for multitudes of people and ecosystems on this fast-warming planet, an international panel of scientists reported Sunday. But they provide little hope the world will rise to the challenge.

The Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued its gloomy report at a meeting in Incheon, South Korea.

In the 728-page document, the U.N. organization detailed how EarthB次元官网网址檚 weather, health and ecosystems would be in better shape if the worldB次元官网网址檚 leaders could somehow limit future human-caused warming to just 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (a half degree Celsius) from now, instead of the globally agreed-upon goal of 1.8 degrees F (1 degree C). Among other things:

• Half as many people would suffer from lack of water.
• There would be fewer deaths and illnesses from heat, smog and infectious diseases.
• Seas would rise nearly 4 inches (0.1 metres) less.
• Half as many animals with back bones and plants would lose the majority of their habitats.
• There would be substantially fewer heat waves, downpours and droughts.
• The West Antarctic ice sheet might not kick into irreversible melting.
• And it just may be enough to save most of the worldB次元官网网址檚 coral reefs from dying.

B次元官网网址淔or some people this is a life-or-death situation without a doubt,B次元官网网址� said Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald, a lead author on the report.

Limiting warming to 0.9 degrees from now means the world can keep B次元官网网址渁 semblanceB次元官网网址� of the ecosystems we have. Adding another 0.9 degrees on top of that B次元官网网址� the looser global goal B次元官网网址� essentially means a different and more challenging Earth for people and species, said another of the reportB次元官网网址檚 lead authors, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, director of the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland, Australia.

But meeting the more ambitious goal of slightly less warming would require immediate, draconian cuts in emissions of heat-trapping gases and dramatic changes in the energy field. While the U.N. panel says technically thatB次元官网网址檚 possible, it saw little chance of the needed adjustments happening.

In 2010, international negotiators adopted a goal of limiting warming to 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) since pre-industrial times. ItB次元官网网址檚 called the 2-degree goal. In 2015, when the nations of the world agreed to the historic Paris climate agreement, they set dual goals: 2 degrees C and a more demanding target of 1.5 degrees C from pre-industrial times. The 1.5 was at the urging of vulnerable countries that called 2 degrees a death sentence.

The world has already warmed 1 degree C since pre-industrial times, so the talk is really about the difference of another half-degree C or 0.9 degrees F from now.

B次元官网网址淭here is no definitive way to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 above pre-industrial levels,B次元官网网址� the U.N.-requested report said. More than 90 scientists wrote the report, which is based on more than 6,000 peer reviews.

B次元官网网址淕lobal warming is likely to reach 1.5 degrees C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate,B次元官网网址� the report states.

Related:

Related:

Deep in the report, scientists say less than 2 per cent of 529 of their calculated possible future scenarios kept warming below the 1.5 goal without the temperature going above that and somehow coming back down in the future.

The pledges nations made in the Paris agreement in 2015 are B次元官网网址渃learly insufficient to limit warming to 1.5 in any way,B次元官网网址� one of the studyB次元官网网址檚 lead authors, Joerj Roeglj of the Imperial College in London, said.

B次元官网网址淚 just donB次元官网网址檛 see the possibility of doing the one and a halfB次元官网网址� and even 2 degrees looks unlikely, said Appalachian State University environmental scientist Gregg Marland, who isnB次元官网网址檛 part of the U.N. panel but has tracked global emissions for decades for the U.S. Energy Department. He likened the report to an academic exercise wondering what would happen if a frog had wings.

Yet report authors said they remain optimistic.

Limiting warming to the lower goal is B次元官网网址渘ot impossible but will require unprecedented changes,B次元官网网址� U.N. panel chief Hoesung Lee said in a news conference in which scientists repeatedly declined to spell out just how feasible that goal is. They said it is up to governments to decide whether those unprecedented changes are acted upon.

B次元官网网址淲e have a monumental task in front of us, but it is not impossible,B次元官网网址� Mahowald said earlier. B次元官网网址淭his is our chance to decide what the world is going to look like.B次元官网网址�

To limit warming to the lower temperature goal, the world needs B次元官网网址渞apid and far-reachingB次元官网网址� changes in energy systems, land use, city and industrial design, transportation and building use, the report said. Annual carbon dioxide pollution levels that are still rising now would have to drop by about half by 2030 and then be near zero by 2050. Emissions of other greenhouse gases, such as methane, also will have to drop. Switching away rapidly from fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas to do this could be more expensive than the less ambitious goal, but it would clean the air of other pollutants. And that would have the side benefit of avoiding more than 100 million premature deaths through this century, the report said.

B次元官网网址淐limate-related risks to health, livelihoods, food security, water supply, human security and economic growth are projected to increase with global warmingB次元官网网址� the report said, adding that the worldB次元官网网址檚 poor are more likely to get hit hardest.

Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer said extreme weather, especially heat waves, will be deadlier if the lower goal is passed.

Meeting the tougher-to-reach goal B次元官网网址渃ould result in around 420 million fewer people being frequently exposed to extreme heat waves, and about 65 million fewer people being exposed to exceptional heat waves,B次元官网网址� the report said. The deadly heat waves that hit India and Pakistan in 2015 will become practically yearly events if the world reaches the hotter of the two goals, the report said.

Coral and other ecosystems are also at risk. The report said warmer water coral reefs B次元官网网址渨ill largely disappear.B次元官网网址�

The outcome will determine whether B次元官网网址渕y grandchildren would get to see beautiful coral reefs,B次元官网网址� PrincetonB次元官网网址檚 Oppenheimer said.

For scientists there is a bit of B次元官网网址渨ishful thinkingB次元官网网址� that the report will spur governments and people to act quickly and strongly, one of the panelB次元官网网址檚 leaders, German biologist Hans-Otto Portner, said. B次元官网网址淚f action is not taken it will take the planet into an unprecedented climate future.B次元官网网址�

___

The Associated Press Health & Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical InstituteB次元官网网址檚 Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Seth Borenstein, The Associated Press

Like us on and follow us on .