As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-electB次元官网网址檚 protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over TrumpB次元官网网址檚 promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

CanadaB次元官网网址檚 manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the B次元官网网址渕ost trade-exposedB次元官网网址� within Canada.

B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 in the U.S.B次元官网网址檚 best interest, itB次元官网网址檚 in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that weB次元官网网址檙e able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,B次元官网网址� Darby said in an interview.

B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but weB次元官网网址檝e had to deal with this before and weB次元官网网址檙e going to do our best to deal with it again.B次元官网网址�

American economists have also warned TrumpB次元官网网址檚 plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

ItB次元官网网址檚 consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

B次元官网网址淎 tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so thatB次元官网网址檚 something that we have to be prepared for,B次元官网网址� he said.

B次元官网网址淚t could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.B次元官网网址�

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of TrumpB次元官网网址檚 tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

B次元官网网址淪lowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,B次元官网网址� Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government B次元官网网址渕ust collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.B次元官网网址�

B次元官网网址淲ith an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each otherB次元官网网址檚 closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border B次元官网网址� remains essential for the economies of both countries,B次元官网网址� she said in a statement.

B次元官网网址淏y resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.B次元官网网址�

Sammy Hudes, The Canadian Press