A University of B.C. professor of political science said that the upcoming federal election serves no good purpose for Canada B次元官网网址� and might not help Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, either.
B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 not as if the Trudeau government was having trouble legislating,B次元官网网址� said Richard Johnston, professor emeritus, adding that the Liberal government had a B次元官网网址渨orking majorityB次元官网网址� on pretty much all policy decisions.
B次元官网网址淢ostly, the problem of the minority parliament was that the government didnB次元官网网址檛 control the flow of debate and informationB次元官网网址� they had they actually had to at least negotiate with the opposition parties, or even just put up with flak on questions that were uncomfortable, and they would rather not have to continue in that.B次元官网网址�
While Trudeau is billing this snap election B次元官网网址� scheduled for Sept. 20 B次元官网网址� as a referendum on who should lead the country out of the pandemic, Johnston said that wonB次元官网网址檛 be enough for a majority B次元官网网址� and the Liberals know it.
B次元官网网址淭he additional cards that he will be trying to play are policy cards, right?B次元官网网址� Johnston said, noting the eight child care agreements signed with provinces in the weeks before the writ was dropped. B次元官网网址淗eB次元官网网址檚 opened the spigot for infrastructure, and heB次元官网网址檚 done so in very targeted ways.B次元官网网址�
That includes SkyTrain funding announcement for ridings like Cloverdale-Langley City, which Conservative Tamara Jansen took from the Liberals in the 2019 election.
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But while Trudeau may be looking at pandemic-era snap elections in B.C. and New Brunswick, where the incumbents were able to transform minorities into majorities, Johnston said that federal politics are more complicated and that the Liberals donB次元官网网址檛 have much wiggle room. They have 155 of the 338 seats in Parliament currently, with the Conservatives at 119, the Bloc Quebecois at 32, the NDP at 24, the Greens at two and independents at five.
Johnston said that since the 1970s, the political divide between the Conservatives and the rest of the parties has grown wider and wider, leaving fewer and fewer swing voters between the right and the Liberals.
B次元官网网址淏ut the fact is that the Prime Minister side of the political spectrum is the divided side. There are competitors for a lot of those vote,B次元官网网址� he said.
In both the partyB次元官网网址檚 platform released just prior to the write being dropped and in public appearances, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has targeted the increasing costs of housing and child care, problems his party has laid squarely at TrudeauB次元官网网址檚 feet.
The NDP, Johnston said, while remaining not popular enough to form government has a B次元官网网址渃ertain credibility at the momentB次元官网网址� as a party that is strong enough that it can be a plausible destination for voters who donB次元官网网址檛 want the Conservatives, but donB次元官网网址檛 want to reward Mr. Trudeau for his gamble.B次元官网网址�
But while the NDP may be stronger this year than in past ones, Johnston said that only in some parts of the country B次元官网网址� such as B.C. B次元官网网址� will more votes for the New Democrats turn into more seats for Jagmeet Singh. In places like Ontario, votes for the NDP could well turn into Conservative seats as the party takes advantage of confusion on the left side of the spectrum.
And the Conservatives are better prepared this time, Johnston said. The Tories have already unveiled their platform B次元官网网址� a contrast to 2019, when they released it a week prior to Election Day B次元官网网址� and it includes initiatives that B次元官网网址測ou havenB次元官网网址檛 heard from ConservativesB次元官网网址� before.
B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 time for Conservatives to take inequality seriously, because thatB次元官网网址檚 becoming more of a problem in our country,B次元官网网址� Leader Erin OB次元官网网址橳oole states in the document. He also promises to B次元官网网址渢ake climate change seriously,B次元官网网址� but Johnston said that could be a double-edged sword for the Conservative leader.
B次元官网网址淚 think that OB次元官网网址橳oole is a more credible leader for the broad mass of voters than Andrew Scheer was,B次元官网网址� he said. B次元官网网址�(But) I do think that OB次元官网网址橳oole has his own problems and these are the problems of the Conservative Party.B次元官网网址�
The ToriesB次元官网网址� issues are long-term ones, Johnston added.
The Conservative Party of 2021 is a merger of the Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance (formerly the Reform Party) that took place in 2003. The current party, Johnston said, B次元官网网址渃learly a party of the rightB次元官网网址� and created a gap between the more right-leaning candidates popular with party members and those popular with voters overall.
B次元官网网址淎lthough OB次元官网网址橳oole has dragged his party toward the centre on climate change, his party doesnB次元官网网址檛 really want to be dragged. And as that question comes up, Trudeau will be reminding people all the time, of the consequences of going over to that side.B次元官网网址�
The other issue it created, Johnston added, is that OB次元官网网址橳oole B次元官网网址� like prior leaders B次元官网网址� needs to keep all facets of his own party happy with policies that cater to social conservatives without turning away fiscal conservatives.
But the problem all around the political spectrum this year will be turnout. In 2019, 67 per cent of voters cast a ballot. But this year, voters already fatigued from an 18-month pandemic B次元官网网址� and in B.C. the raging wildfires B次元官网网址� may decide itB次元官网网址檚 not worth it for them to head to the polls.
B次元官网网址淚 think itB次元官网网址檚 hard to see this as a campaign thatB次元官网网址檚 going to inspire anyone,B次元官网网址� Johnston said. His guess for the results?
B次元官网网址淚f had to put money down, IB次元官网网址檇 bet on roughly replication of the status quo.B次元官网网址�
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EditorB次元官网网址檚 note: The previous version of this story stated that the NDP had not released their platform. In fact, the party released it on Aug. 12, prior to the writ being dropped.
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