Fire season officially kicked off on April 1.
The province has seen over 50 reported wildfires already and the season has hardly started.
Wildland Fire Ecologist Robert Gray has been studying the science behind wildfires for years. He says when we look to predict upcoming fire seasons, drought is the top concern.
B次元官网网址淧eople think they can look at snow pack, but there just isnB次元官网网址檛 any good, strong correlation between snowpack and the eventual fire seasonB次元官网网址� Most of the research is showing that drought has a big impact.B次元官网网址�
Gray says the province saw a very dry late summer and fall last year.
B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 a concern, because the large fuels - the logs and the duff and stuff, is very dry still right now and if the snowpack comes off very quickly it doesnB次元官网网址檛 have a chance to soak in. Those fuels are basically ready to burn early summer.B次元官网网址�
On top of that, Gray says those fuels can be very difficult to extinguish if they catch on fire and typically eat up valuable provincial resources.
B次元官网网址淔ires tend to eat up resources, and, of course, the more resources you eat up the next fire has fewer resources and itB次元官网网址檚 a cascading affect.B次元官网网址�
February through April have been relatively dry in B.C. as well and could fuel a nasty wildfire season, but predicting exactly how the summer will go is not easy.
B次元官网网址淲e went from a very quiet 2020 to the heat dome in 2021 and a bad fire season. What we can predict is that every three or four or five years weB次元官网网址檙e going to have a significant fire season, just because of increasing global temperatures, changes in weather patterns, increased drought, things like that. We might have a down year, or down two years, but weB次元官网网址檙e rolling the dice and eventually we will have a bad fire season.B次元官网网址�
Gray explained that 2023 could be setting up a challenging fire season for next year.
B次元官网网址淭he el ninos that weB次元官网网址檝e had have really driven global temperature. El ninas tend to cool things a little bit. What IB次元官网网址檝e seen for some of the modelling work, long range modelling, that by next year 2024 we have a building el nino which will probably drive record global temperatures.B次元官网网址�
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Drought and high temperatures arenB次元官网网址檛 the only cause for concern. Gray says a year with lots of precipitation allows more growth of fuels.
B次元官网网址淲e did some prescribed burning in the East Kootenays last year in the springtime and it was moist up until we had that really significant drought in the year. We grew so much grass we could have burnt the same site in the fall.B次元官网网址�
So what do we do if wildfire season is inevitable? Gray says the more prepared we are ahead of time the better.
B次元官网网址淲eB次元官网网址檝e done a lot of fuel treatment, weB次元官网网址檝e educated people about not starting fires and protecting their homes and stuff, so that it really doesnB次元官网网址檛 matter what kind of fire season we have because we are ready for it.B次元官网网址�
According to Gray, the provinces needs to do more work on fire preparation and mitigation.
B次元官网网址淚 would invest massively in prevention and mitigation,B次元官网网址� Gray said in response to what he would do if taking over the fire service in B.C. B次元官网网址淲e spend an inordinate amount of money on response and recovery, and most of the international disaster agencies like the UN Disaster Program are basically telling governments B次元官网网址榶ou need to reverse the formula, you need to spend far more on prevention mitigation,B次元官网网址� which basically is fuels work.B次元官网网址�
Gray says the only way to reduce evacuations and impacts to the provincial budget as well as improve air quality is to invest heavily in mitigation work, something the province isnB次元官网网址檛 doing.
B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 the same with any other natural disturbance. Whether itB次元官网网址檚 flooding or earthquakes, if you spend the money up front then when the disaster happens it doesnB次元官网网址檛 cost you as much. Yet for some strange reason and for 25 years weB次元官网网址檝e been debating this. WeB次元官网网址檙e not doing it with wildfires, and whatB次元官网网址檚 worse is thereB次元官网网址檚 some out there who are saying itB次元官网网址檚 too big a problem so therefore thereB次元官网网址檚 no sense in spending the money on it.B次元官网网址�
Predictions always suggest the places that dry out the fastest are at highest risk for a wildfire. B次元官网网址淭he Okanagan, the East Kootenays, the central plateau, Cariboo, Chilcotin - those are the places we tend to have a very long fire season that starts in April or May and if we donB次元官网网址檛 get June rain then youB次元官网网址檙e adding June to it. Those are places that itB次元官网网址檚 about a six month fire season.
As of April 20, B.C. has 26 wildfires currently burning.
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brittany.webster@blackpress.ca
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