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BԪַExpecting the unexpectedBԪַ: Experts say itBԪַs hard to determine how 2023 weather will compare to other years

Meteorologist, river forecast centre say week-to-week weather gives better insights

How is 2023BԪַs weather going to stack up to previous years?

One expert says itBԪַs about BԪַexpecting the unexpected, which is part of the forecast.BԪַ

Armel Castellan, a warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, said climate change is BԪַobviously part of our landscape now.BԪַ

BԪַIt is something that we have seen repeatedly over the last few years, if not decades if we look back over to the north of Canada.BԪַ

However, Castellan said he did see comparisons to a few different years: 2012 and BԪַto a certain extent last year.BԪַ

But when it comes to exactly how 2023 could compare weather-wise to previous years, Castellan said it is BԪַnuancedBԪַ during an update from the province on the spring freshet and wildfire season.

Officials say British Columbians in the southern half of the province may be in for a cool spring, but a lack of rainfall since last fall could cause an increased risk of droughts and wildfires come summer.

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BԪַThe devilBԪַs in the details of that 10-day, two-week forecast where weBԪַre going to start to see the events that are really going to shape the hazard season.BԪַ

David Campbell echoed that.

BԪַWe need to watch that week-to-week weather as we go through the year and how the river systems are responding to it,BԪַ explained Campbell, who is the head of the B.C. River Forecast Centre.

He added BԪַweBԪַre onto the real wildcards, and thatBԪַs the point we want to get across as well.BԪַ ItBԪַs that uncertainty over the next couple of months, he said, that is BԪַreally going to drive things.BԪַ

BԪַWe know that weBԪַve experienced things like the heat dome. We know that extreme rainfall, and looking back to recent years, for example, 2017 in the Okanagan where seasonal rainfall could really play a part in terms of elevating the risks that are there.BԪַ

Meantime Minister of Emergency Management and Climate Readiness Bowinn Ma said the BԪַclimate crisis is here,BԪַ with extreme weather events happening BԪַmore frequently, with more severity, longer durations and greater impacts.BԪַ

BԪַIn fact, in recent years, what weBԪַre also seeing is that the time between these extreme weather events is decreasing, which means it is not uncommon for communities to be actively recovering from a previous event and then facing a next one,BԪַ she said.

BԪַThese accumulative events are really wearing on a lot of communities, and unfortunately, are likely to become more common as time goes on because of climate change.BԪַ

BԪַ With file from Wolfgang Depner

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lauren.collins@blackpress.ca

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Lauren Collins

About the Author: Lauren Collins

I'm a provincial reporter for Black Press Media's provincial team, after my journalism career took me around B.C. since I was 19 years old.
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