With an election all but called for this spring, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca is poised to be a battleground riding with a renewed voting dynamic, as Liberal MP Keith Martin steps aside.

In 2008, Conservative Troy DeSouza narrowly lost by 68 votes, demonstrating that Esquimalt-JDF voters, at least at the time, were migrating toward the Tories. As Martin bows out after 17 years, it raises the question: Are Liberal voters loyal to the man or the party?

B次元官网网址淚t is a key question: Which way will the voters go? The second choice for most Liberals is Conservative, and vice-versa,B次元官网网址� said Dennis Pilon, a political science professor with the University of Victoria. B次元官网网址淭hose who voted for Martin wonB次元官网网址檛 necessarily vote Liberal. This could help Troy (DeSouza) get over  the hump. Martin bowing out throws it all up into the air.B次元官网网址�

Making political calculations more difficult, Martin has sat with Reform, Canadian Alliance and Conservative parities before crossing the floor to the Liberals in 2004. In the past three elections heB次元官网网址檚 fielded 34 to 35 per cent of the ballots. ItB次元官网网址檚 hard to predict where votersB次元官网网址� loyalties lie, said Dan Spinner, CEO for the  WestShore Chamber of Commerce.

B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 an interesting question to what happens to KeithB次元官网网址檚 voters, whether they are automatically Liberal voters. HeB次元官网网址檚 not always been Liberal in the past,B次元官网网址� Spinner said. The riding leans toward the NDP provincially, but that doesnB次元官网网址檛 necessarily translate federally.

B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 how people react to national platforms, to local platforms and to the characters of the individual candidates,B次元官网网址� Spinner said. B次元官网网址淲eB次元官网网址檝e got a rapidly growing population, with rapidly growing young families. Federal candidates will have to realize this is a family-focused riding.B次元官网网址�

Rounding out the field in Esquimalt-JDF are Langford Coun. Lillian Szpak running for the Liberals and Esquimalt Coun. Randall Garrison for the NDP. Shaunna Salsman of Sooke is running for the Green Party.

Pilon said heB次元官网网址檚 not sure Szpak is high-profile enough to fill the big boots left by Martin. On the other hand, DeSouzaB次元官网网址檚 ongoing campaign to build an interchange at McKenzie Avenue and the Trans-Canada Highway could backfire.

Pilon said its an easy argument to make that the Conservative government is playing politics with big infrastructure. Federal funding came through for an interchange at the airport that no one was asking for, he said, which is in Gary LunnB次元官网网址檚 Conservative riding.

B次元官网网址淭he area in desperate need of an overpass is not in a Conservative riding,B次元官网网址� Pilon said. B次元官网网址淭o voters, it looks like you are being held hostage. Some will say thatB次元官网网址檚 how politics works. But the message is if you donB次元官网网址檛 elect Troy there is no overpass. People donB次元官网网址檛 like feeling theyB次元官网网址檙e over the barrel.B次元官网网址�

But the Conservatives have spent millions in Esquimalt-JDF, including helping fund the new gym and new seniors centre addition at West Shore Parks and Recreation, a new classroom building at Royal Roads University, the Sportplex in Langford and numerous expensive projects at CFB Esquimalt.

B次元官网网址淚n the suburbs the Conservatives have made up for weaknesses in the (urban cores),B次元官网网址� Pilon noted. B次元官网网址淭hey are making inroads.B次元官网网址�

To galvanize diverse voters who span from Port Renfrew to Esquimalt, Spinner said candidates will need to touch on a comprehensive transportation plan, housing affordability and back the drive on the West Shore to build two new high schools.

B次元官网网址淭here is a lot of potential federal contributions to effect infrastructure across the riding,B次元官网网址� Spinner said. B次元官网网址淲e know this is a swing riding. It will be interesting to see who has the pulse of the community.B次元官网网址�

Spinner also noted the corporate tax cuts proposed by the Conservatives in their now-dead budget might not find favour as a campaign promise among the thousands of small and medium sized businesses throughout the riding.

B次元官网网址淐ertainly as a chamber we want to see fewer taxes, but most of the corporate cuts help big businesses, not small businesses,B次元官网网址� he said. B次元官网网址淭he recession lingers, construction is slow, for restaurants and bars itB次元官网网址檚 slow. Business is growing, but its not easy out there.B次元官网网址�

The Esquimalt-JDF riding has a history of higher voter turnout than the national average, hitting nearly 65 per cent in 2008, compared to 59 per cent across Canada.

Lower voter turnout is generally to the benefit of the Conservatives, Pilon suggested, while higher turnouts favour opposition parties. He cited a Conservative policy implemented in 2006 requiring photo ID to vote.

B次元官网网址淭his was brought in despite no evidence of problems with voter fraud,B次元官网网址� Pilon said. B次元官网网址淢andatory ID makes it harder for certain groups, the same groups that tend not to vote Conservative.B次元官网网址�

The WestShore Chamber of Commerce is planning an all-candidates meeting in Langford for mid April. The date will be posted at www.westshore.bc.ca.

editor@goldstreamgazette.com