The provincial government promises British Columbians more money in their pockets when the calendar turns to 2025, but the new year also comes with some questions.

B.C.'s Finance Minister Brenda Bailey said in a statement issued Monday (Dec. 30) that 65 per cent of families and individuals will receive the quarterly climate action tax credit designed to compensate the carbon tax on or around Jan. 3.

Bailey says the credit will help British Columbians. She acknowledges that high prices "can cause pressure for so many people during the holiday season," but adds that government is working "hard to help offset costs for people in B.C. with text credits that put more money into people's pockets when they need it the most." The credit means an additional $440 for singles, $680 for single-parent families and $613 for multi-parent families after the provincial government had raised the eligibility threshold in the last provincial budget to compensate scheduled hikes in the carbon tax. It currently stands at $65-per-tonne and will rise by $15 every April 1 until 2030. For British Columbians, the pending increase means that they will pay an additional 3.3 cents per litre gas starting April 1.

This combination of government issuing a credit now, but raising the carbon tax later has drawn criticism from the opposition. Conservative Kamloops-Centre MLA Peter Milobar, who serves as his party's shadow finance minister, said Bailey is playing what he calls a "shell game" designed to distract the public from the pending increase in the carbon tax.

He said that it has made life more unaffordable for British Columbians, adding that the carbon tax has tripled since the NDP has assumed power in 2017. The carbon tax has existed since 2008 after the former B.C. Liberals had made British Columbia the first province to charge a price on carbon.

But both Bailey's praise of the credit and Milobar's criticism of the pending hike premise on conditions that may soon change.

Premier David Eby announced just before the provincial election that the province would eliminate the consumer portion of the carbon tax if Ottawa were to drop the legal requirement for a carbon tax. That scenario is becoming increasingly likely given the political instability in Ottawa, where the federal minority government of Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confronts the distinct possibility of losing the next federal election to the federal Conservatives, who have organized their campaign around the promise to eliminate carbon taxation in Canada.

Such a move would not only draw opposition from environmentalists and many economists who consider carbon taxation the most effective and fairest way to change emission-causing behaviour, but also force the provincial government to re-jig its carbon taxation system for businesses to make up the lost revenue.

Consumers themselves would also not be off the hook, as they would continue to pay some form of carbon tax B´ÎÔª¹ÙÍøÍøÖ·“ albeit indirectly B´ÎÔª¹ÙÍøÍøÖ·“ through purchased goods and services. That ultimately creates an ongoing need to compensate British Columbians. Current plans call for an expansion of the climate action tax credit until 80 per cent of households will receive it by 2030, but those plans might end up in the rubbish bin as early as this year, depending on what happens in Ottawa.

Other more immediate and predictable changes will see more than 340,000 families with low-to-middle-incomes receive their monthly BC Family Benefit, starting later in January. The last provincial budget has temporarily boosted that benefit by 25 per cent from July 2024 through June 2025. The increase means an average of $445 more per family over the year. Families of four can receive up to $3,563 per year while single-parent families with one child can receive as much as $2,688 per cent. In-come eligible families must have children under the age of 18 to receive payments, which are deposited around the 20th of every month.

Bailey also said that government is working on other ways to improve affordability with some measures guaranteed, even before 2025. Farm workers picking 15 types of crops by hand will see their minimum wage go up by 3.9 per cent on Dec. 31. Each of the 15 types of crops has its minimum wage rate.

The general minimum wage is also scheduled for an increase on June 1. It currently sits at $17.40 per hour and will increase by annual inflation. Other specific areas considered for affordability measures include car insurance costs.

Finally, Bailey's ministry continues to prep government's signature affordability measure: a permanent $1,000 break for 90 per cent of households, first delivered as a so-called 'grocery rebate' as part of the upcoming budget to be tabled this spring, then as a permanent tax cut going forward. But Bailey's statement did not mention the rebate, a point of criticism from Milobar.

Eby later mentioned it in his New Year's statement.

Eby has promised to address affordability while also boosting the economy through sped-up permitting and other measures.

Looming behind these promises is a record-setting deficit forecast of $9.6 billion and concerns about B.C.'s overall economic direction in the face of tariff threats from incoming U.S. President Donald Trump.