President John F. Kennedy stood before Canadian lawmakers elucidating the important relationship between the two countries: B次元官网网址淕eography has made us neighbours. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners.B次元官网网址�

B次元官网网址淎nd necessity has made us allies,B次元官网网址� Kennedy said in a 1961 address to Parliament.

But behind the scenes, the relationship between the charismatic Kennedy and then-prime minister John Diefenbaker was toxic.

With the looming United States election, the future of who will be at the helm of the bilateral relationship remains unclear, but Canada cannot escape the geopolitical pull of its closest neighbour.

While some presidents and prime ministers have been on friendly terms, the shared geography and history hasnB次元官网网址檛 stopped clashes between others.

B次元官网网址淲e have a long history of presidents and prime ministers hating each otherB次元官网网址檚 gutsB次元官网网址� and yet the system works,B次元官网网址� said Aaron Ettinger, a political science professor at Carleton University.

Experts say incompatible personalities wonB次元官网网址檛 irreparably harm the relationship, but it can make it harder for Canada.

B次元官网网址淚tB次元官网网址檚 very difficult to operate when you have outright antagonism between the leaders B次元官网网址� and that is less a function of ideology and more a function of personality,B次元官网网址� said Laura Dawson, an expert on Canada-U. S. relations and the executive director of the Future Borders Coalition.

That became clear during the first Trump administration when the former president scrapped the North American Free Trade Agreement. Negotiations of itB次元官网网址檚 replacement, the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, were marked by public spats between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and former president Donald Trump.

Trump called Trudeau B次元官网网址渨eakB次元官网网址� and B次元官网网址渄ishonestB次元官网网址� after the prime minister criticized the presidentB次元官网网址檚 2018 tariff actions at the G7 summit in Quebec.

Robert Lighthizer, TrumpB次元官网网址檚 trade representative, recounted in his book that U.S.-Canada relations were B次元官网网址渁t their lowest ebb since the failed American invasion of Upper Canada during the War of 1812.B次元官网网址�

The following year there was another blow-up when Trudeau and other NATO leaders appeared to be on video talking about a Trump press conference. The former president called the prime minister B次元官网网址渢wo-faced.B次元官网网址�

While the relationship between the leaders was publicly rocky, behind the scenes CUSMA was successfully negotiated. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland called the agreement a B次元官网网址渧ictory for all Canadians,B次元官网网址� and experts say it was more moderate than Trump originally threatened.

Whoever takes the White House will be in charge during trade pactB次元官网网址檚 2026 review.

Trudeau is a political veteran now, Dawson said, and is more prepared for a possible second Trump administration.

B次元官网网址淲e know that Trump-Trudeau is not a good fit,B次元官网网址� Dawson said. B次元官网网址淏ut IB次元官网网址檓 sure that Trudeau will figure out a way to make it work.B次元官网网址�

Most experts say Kamala HarrisB次元官网网址� personality would be a better match with Trudeau. ItB次元官网网址檚 been reported they already have a good relationship and many of their policy goals align. He originally ran on B次元官网网址渟unny waysB次元官网网址� and she kicked off her campaign with B次元官网网址渏oy.B次元官网网址�

The vice-president also spent part of her youth living in Canada, although observers say the impact of her teenage years in Montreal is probably overstated.

B次元官网网址淗arris would obviously be easier for probably anyone to get along with,B次元官网网址� Dawson said. B次元官网网址淏ut getting along only goes so far.B次元官网网址�

Harris has been campaigning on her vote against CUSMA, saying it didnB次元官网网址檛 do enough to protect U.S. workers, and is expected to follow the Biden administrationB次元官网网址檚 Buy American procurement rules.

ThereB次元官网网址檚 another outcome to consider: a change in Canadian leadership. A general election must be held by October next year, but it could come sooner if the Liberals lose the confidence of the House.

The Conservatives have long held a lead in the polls amid high inflation, an exodus of Liberal ministers and uncertainty over TrudeauB次元官网网址檚 political future.

B次元官网网址淲e have a whole lot of turnover in the works coming up in the next two years between Canada and the United States,B次元官网网址� Ettinger said. B次元官网网址淎nd itB次元官网网址檚 possible that we have two leaders who have never met one another.B次元官网网址�

ItB次元官网网址檚 not clear how Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would get along with either presidential candidate.

Ivan Ivanov, an assistant professor at the University of Ottawa, said Poilievre B次元官网网址渋s a professional communicator.B次元官网网址� The expert in public relations and crisis management said the Conservative leader can be combative B次元官网网址� which could hurt or help the bilateral relationship B次元官网网址� but it plays well among Canadian voters.

During President Joe BidenB次元官网网址檚 state visit to Canada last year he met with Poilievre and they discussed Canadian exemptions to Buy America rules, national defence interests and other issues. A photo shared on PoilievreB次元官网网址檚 social media shows the leaders shaking hands.

However, Ettinger said he doesnB次元官网网址檛 think we can B次元官网网址済lean much about how he personally will interact with other leaders on the international stage.B次元官网网址�

B次元官网网址淗eB次元官网网址檚 a complete cipher.B次元官网网址�

PoilievreB次元官网网址檚 promises share some insight. He pledged to match American tariffs on Chinese-produced electric vehicles a few weeks before the Liberal government took action this summer and promised to push Americans on the longstanding softwood lumber dispute.

Poilievre has also been known to use slogans in the Republican lexicon. For example, Poilievre said he will B次元官网网址渞eplace woke culture with warrior cultureB次元官网网址� in the military and that B次元官网网址渂iological malesB次元官网网址� should not be in womenB次元官网网址檚 sports and change rooms B次元官网网址� both talking points were included in multiple speeches at the recent Republican National Convention.

But that doesnB次元官网网址檛 necessarily make him the better match for Trump, Dawson said.

B次元官网网址淲e might think that a Poilievre-Trump pairing would be better because heB次元官网网址檚 got a more ideological fit,B次元官网网址� Dawson said.

B次元官网网址淏ut we know that Trump is not a traditional Republican at all.B次元官网网址�