If U.S. President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on Canadian goods as heB次元官网网址檚 repeatedly threated to do, experts say Canada has a strong case to challenge it under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico free trade agreement.

The question, though, is how quickly any decision may come through the process B次元官网网址� and more importantly, whether the U.S. would respect any decisions from the outcome.

B次元官网网址淎 rules-based system is only as good as the willingness of the government whoB次元官网网址檚 subject to it, to comply with it,B次元官网网址� said Wendy Wagner, a partner at Gowling WLG.

The free trade agreement is a nation-to-nation agreement, so thereB次元官网网址檚 no one else to appeal to if a country decides not to respect a decision.

AmericaB次元官网网址檚 past performance on adhering to trade decisions has been mixed. Areas of contention include complicated measures such as figuring out how much foreign content is in an automobile or the long-running softwood lumber dispute.

What Trump has threatened, though B次元官网网址� blanket 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods, with the exception of 10 per cent tariffs on energy B次元官网网址� doesnB次元官网网址檛 contain much grey area, said Wendy.

B次元官网网址淲eB次元官网网址檙e not arguing around the edges here,B次元官网网址� she said.

B次元官网网址淭here couldnB次元官网网址檛 be anything more offensive to a free trade agreement than a 25 per cent across-the-board tariff on all the products that originate from that country. ItB次元官网网址檚 the most blatantly antithetical measure that you could impose.B次元官网网址�

Enforcing the law

The blatancy of the threatened measures do bring into question whether any ruling through treaty channels will have much impact, Wagner said.

B次元官网网址淭hereB次元官网网址檚 a larger issue about the extent of adherence to a rules-based system, both internationally and domestically.B次元官网网址�

The U.S. has already shown a disregard to findings in the past. When it imposed metal tariffs in 2018 the World Trade Organization ultimately ruled in favour of China that the move wasnB次元官网网址檛 allowed, but the U.S. refused to comply.

Canada could also decide to challenge this round of tariffs at the WTO, as well as through CUSMA.

Based on the rules of the regional treaty, Canada could launch a challenge which would prompt mandatory consultations between countries within 30 days of filing the complaint.

If thereB次元官网网址檚 no resolution through that step, the next would be to establish a dispute settlement panel. It acts as a sort of tribunal and goes through the process of hearing arguments and evaluating the evidence and produces a report on its findings.

The time it takes to get through a complaint varies, but past cases have generally run around a year to a year and a half, Wagner said.

The complaints process

The dispute panelB次元官网网址檚 report sets out what the offending country needs to do to fix the trade issue.

If the U.S. didnB次元官网网址檛 comply, then Canada would be allowed under the system to impose dollar-for-dollar counter measures.

This is something Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has already said the government will do as soon as the U.S. imposes tariffs, but technically Canada will also be in violation of the treaty if it imposes counter-tariffs ahead of the process.

While Canada may have to get ahead of the process to respond given the scale of the threat, itB次元官网网址檚 still important it goes through the treaty steps to get to the same result, said Clifford Sosnow, a partner at Fasken Martineau DuMoulin.

B次元官网网址淯ltimately the result of the (grievance) process is compliance, and if thereB次元官网网址檚 no compliance, retaliation, and so in many ways, youB次元官网网址檙e back to square one,B次元官网网址� he said.

B次元官网网址淏ut symbolically and legally, it has important aspects to it, because it effectively for Canada is an affirmation of the importance of the agreement.B次元官网网址�

Going through the process will also force the U.S. to participate and submit to the process. That makes it harder for it to say itB次元官网网址檚 abandoning the whole treaty, said Sosnow.

B次元官网网址淓ffectively it creates some stickiness between a president whoB次元官网网址檚 already poorly disposed towards the agreement, and at the same time affirms the legitimacy of the agreement.B次元官网网址�

Committing to the treaty

For Canada, following the legal steps also affirms that the legal structure is the way to resolve disputes, he said.

B次元官网网址淚n other words, a rules-based system as opposed to a power-based system. So thereB次元官网网址檚 both strategic value to this (and) thereB次元官网网址檚 symbolic value to it.B次元官网网址�

A U.S. refusal to participate in the process would effectively renounce the whole treaty, a sharp contrast to TrumpB次元官网网址檚 apparent position that he wants a better version of the treaty he originally agreed to when negotiations open up on June 1, 2026.

B次元官网网址淚t would be effectively a highly, highly controversial, and in fact I would suggest an unprecedented, repudiation of the agreement.B次元官网网址�

A full abandoning of the treaty would be much more significant than TrumpB次元官网网址檚 tariffs, which he claims to be doing over national security concerns at the border. While the claims are tenuous at best, Sosnow said, theyB次元官网网址檙e at least still within the framework of the treaty.

B次元官网网址淭he logic of that is very poor, the logic of that is very weak, but thatB次元官网网址檚 the tenuous connection to the agreement.B次元官网网址�

When Trump last imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum in 2018, the process was resolved through counter-tariffs and diplomacy, not through the treaty process.

The last round had Canada agree to several measures to limit exports of what the U.S. considered subsidized metal, but Sosnow said Trump has made it clear heB次元官网网址檚 not interested in a measured solution.

B次元官网网址淭hat seemed to mollify the president (in 2018). Right now, the president is saying, B次元官网网址業 wonB次元官网网址檛 be mollified by that the second time around.B次元官网网址橞次元官网网址�

Ian Bickis, The Canadian Press