Every winter, the Ministry of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship releases monthly reports on the provinceB次元官网网址檚 snowpack levels. Data contained in these reports help experts predict if spring and summer could be tainted by flooding or droughts. 

The determined that B.C.B次元官网网址檚 overall snowpack is B次元官网网址渟lightly below normal,B次元官网网址� averaging 87 per cent of the normal level. Snow indices ranged from 18 per cent of normal in Skagit to 133 per cent in the Lower Thompson, with Vancouver Island standing at 117 per cent.

Although the overall snowpack is currently 13 per cent below normal, Jonathan Boyd, a hydrologist at the River Forecast Centre, said this figure is not worrisome in itself.

B次元官网网址淔or the most part, this season had actually kicked off to a pretty healthy start,B次元官网网址� said Boyd. B次元官网网址淚t began with a combination of rain in September and October and some early storms in November.B次元官网网址�

B次元官网网址淒ecember was kind of a mixed bagB次元官网网址� and it started to get a little bit drier at the very end.B次元官网网址�

According to Boyd, those below-average numbers are mainly due to January being drier than usual as a high-pressure ridge pushed storms further north towards the Alaska area.

B次元官网网址淭ypically January is the month where we get the greatest amount of snow accumulating and this year it's been pretty sparse, particularly in the interior,B次元官网网址� said Boyd. 

However, forecasts suggest the current dry trend will soon give way to wetter weather in February and March, Boyd added.

He estimated that two or three strong storms could bring levels back to or near the yearly average.

Although these predictions rely on advanced forecast models, meteorology remains a predictive science, noted Boyd. With early January marking the halfway point of the snow season, unexpected shifts in weather patterns over the next three months could significantly impact the provinceB次元官网网址檚 snowpacks, for better or worse.

B次元官网网址淓very year is different and every month within the year is different.B次元官网网址�

Too early to make a call, Boyd continues to monitor numbers across the province, awaiting the Feb. 1 snow report.

B次元官网网址淎t this point, we're primarily focusing on preparedness for the upcoming year,B次元官网网址� said Boyd. B次元官网网址淔rom the River Forecast Centre perspectiveB次元官网网址� when the snowpack is very high, it means that my spring is very busy. When the snowpack is lower, it's a little bit easier from a flood perspective, but of course, the concern is then from the drought perspective.B次元官网网址�

However, a deep snowpack does not always equate with higher flood risks, and vice versa, Boyd explained.

If spring months stay cool or warm up gradually, even a large snowpack can melt slowly without issues. However, a sudden heatwave in late spring can trigger drastic snow melts, increasing the risk of flooding.

Last year was a prime example of this unpredictability when provincial snow levels were nearly half of their expected average. January 2024B次元官网网址檚 report showed near-record lows at 44 per cent below normal, about potential impacts. 

However, things took a positive turn.

B次元官网网址淟ast year it was unusual because the snowpack was so low but then we got really favourable weather conditions,B次元官网网址� said Boyd. B次元官网网址淢arch and early April were quite warm and we were worried about running out of the snowpack as early as ever before, but in late April, through June, it continued to be generally cool.B次元官网网址�

Alternatively, scenarios can become bleaker. Boyd recalled that 2017 snow levels were B次元官网网址渧ery lowB次元官网网址� as of Feb. 1, but rain and snow arrived later that month. That year, Okanagan Lake experienced significant flooding because preparations were initially focused on a potential drought. Instead, it turned out to be one of the wettest springs on record.

Although the future remains to be seen, Boyd and his team are preparing for what may be a drier summer.

B次元官网网址淎 lot can change, but right now we're trending toward a situation that is more hazardous from a drought or wildfire perspective.B次元官网网址�