Ahead of the , Associated Press Film Writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle share their predictions for a ceremony with much still up in the air.
BEST PICTURE
The Nominees: B次元官网网址淏elfastB次元官网网址�; B次元官网网址淐ODAB次元官网网址�; ; B次元官网网址淒rive My CarB次元官网网址�; ; B次元官网网址淜ing RichardB次元官网网址�; B次元官网网址淟icorice PizzaB次元官网网址�; B次元官网网址淣ightmare AlleyB次元官网网址�; B次元官网网址淭he Power of the DogB次元官网网址�; B次元官网网址淲est Side Story.B次元官网网址�
BAHR: At this point it really feels like the It is paradoxically both a safe choice and a game changer in that it would be a first best picture win for Netflix after years of trying. Jane CampionB次元官网网址檚 last major shot at picture (and director) was with B次元官网网址淭he Piano,B次元官网网址� but in 1994 that basically stood no chance against B次元官网网址淪chindlerB次元官网网址檚 List.B次元官网网址� This time, itB次元官网网址檚 her film that has the leg up on the Spielberg. And yet there is a possibility that B次元官网网址淐ODAB次元官网网址� could B次元官网网址淟ittle Miss SunshineB次元官网网址�/B次元官网网址滸reen BookB次元官网网址� its way in there as the feel-good alternative B次元官网网址� which was what B次元官网网址淏elfastB次元官网网址� was supposed to be. (Since this article was first published, the chances for B次元官网网址淐ODAB次元官网网址� improved after winning
COYLE: IB次元官网网址檓 . The smart money is on CampionB次元官网网址檚 film. But the win for B次元官网网址淐ODAB次元官网网址� at the Screen Actors Guild B次元官网网址� where B次元官网网址淭he Power of the DogB次元官网网址� failed to get nominated for best ensemble B次元官网网址� suggests strong passion for the film, and maybe a crowd-pleasing advantage on the academyB次元官网网址檚 preferential ballot. Either film, though, . It would hand a streaming service B次元官网网址� Netflix or Apple B次元官网网址� HollywoodB次元官网网址檚 most prestigious honor for the first time. Maybe thatB次元官网网址檚 a big deal, maybe itB次元官网网址檚 belated confirmation of what everyone has known for some time.
BEST ACTRESS
The Nominees: Jessica Chastain, B次元官网网址淭he Eyes of Tammy FayeB次元官网网址�; Olivia Colman, B次元官网网址淭he Lost DaughterB次元官网网址�; Pen茅lope Cruz, B次元官网网址淧arallel MothersB次元官网网址�; Nicole Kidman, B次元官网网址淏eing the RicardosB次元官网网址�; Kristen Stewart, B次元官网网址淪pencer.B次元官网网址�
COYLE: This has been the cruelest of categories, laying waste to most expectations and some very sensational performances. Lady Gaga, Caitr铆ona Balfe, Jennifer Hudson and my favorite performance of the year B次元官网网址� Renate Reinsve (B次元官网网址淭he Worst Person in the WorldB次元官网网址�) B次元官网网址� are just some of the masses among the snubbed. Yet, surprisingly, a very Oscar bait-y performance from a movie released early in the season B次元官网网址� B次元官网网址� has moved to favorite status after winning the SAG Awards. That may partly be because Chastain, a three-time nominee but never a winner, is one of HollywoodB次元官网网址檚 best actors and the time has come to honor her, for a film she steered into existence. I think sheB次元官网网址檒l win, but B次元官网网址� could sneak in for her second Academy Award.
BAHR: Chastain should have already won several Oscars at this point, and not even necessarily for the ones she got nominations for (B次元官网网址淭he HelpB次元官网网址� and B次元官网网址淶ero Dark ThirtyB次元官网网址�). However improbable for a movie that has some big issues, including the way it turns a blind eye to Tammy FayeB次元官网网址檚 complicities in the scam, the tide has shifted in her favor and sheB次元官网网址檒l probably get her win. Still, I still think thereB次元官网网址檚 a small possibility that it will go to after starting the season at the top.
BEST ACTOR
The Nominees: Javier Bardem, B次元官网网址淏eing the RicardosB次元官网网址�; Benedict Cumberbatch, B次元官网网址淭he Power of the DogB次元官网网址�; Andrew Garfield, B次元官网网址渢ick, tick B次元官网网址� Boom!B次元官网网址�; ; Will Smith, B次元官网网址淜ing Richard.
BAHR: ItB次元官网网址檚 always a bit of a snooze when categories are locked for months, but it would be a After a period of giving some possibly TMI interviews, Smith stepped back from the spotlight, let the race play out and still emerged triumphant. Not only did he give a terrific performance in the film, but his to his co-star Aunjanue Ellis and subjects Venus and Serena Williams, was also a helpful reminder of the power of his star charisma. This is such a safe, respectable batch, though. It may have been fun to add some Simon Rex (for B次元官网网址淩ed RocketB次元官网网址�) chaos to the mix.
COYLE: Smith will over-share his way to the Oscar, a deserved win for one of the moviesB次元官网网址� most insanely charming stars. Smith might have already won best actor (for B次元官网网址淎liB次元官网网址�) if not for DenzelB次元官网网址檚 titanic performance that year in B次元官网网址淭raining Day.B次元官网网址� This time, itB次元官网网址檚 SmithB次元官网网址檚 turn. If I could add someone here, itB次元官网网址檇 be Adam Driver in B次元官网网址淎nnette.B次元官网网址� If he canB次元官网网址檛 have best actor, then he should surely take the award for most devastating and fiercely committed singing performance opposite a puppet baby. Wait, IB次元官网网址檓 being told that isnB次元官网网址檛 an Oscar category.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Nominees: Jessie Buckley, B次元官网网址淭he Lost DaughterB次元官网网址�; Ariana DeBose, B次元官网网址淲est Side StoryB次元官网网址�; Judi Dench, B次元官网网址淏elfastB次元官网网址�; Kirsten Dunst, B次元官网网址淭he Power of the DogB次元官网网址�; Aunjanue Ellis, B次元官网网址淜ing Richard.B次元官网网址�
COYLE: Thanks to her , and itB次元官网网址檚 hard not to be moved by the historical symmetry. Sixty years ago, Rita Moreno won for the same role, Anita, in 1961B次元官网网址檚 B次元官网网址淲est Side Story,B次元官网网址� making her the first Latina to win an Oscar. WeB次元官网网址檒l have to see if DeBose is as brief as Moreno was accepting her award. (Her total speech: B次元官网网址淚 canB次元官网网址檛 believe it! Good Lord! I leave you with that.B次元官网网址�) Still, it was a crime to neglect Kathryn HunterB次元官网网址檚 multiplying witches in B次元官网网址淢acbeth.B次元官网网址� WhatB次元官网网址檚 foul isnB次元官网网址檛 always fair.
BAHR: I was prepared for Kirsten Dunst to finally get her moment up on that podium but . At least she broke the seal and got a nomination. And DeBose should definitely be ready with a killer speech. Do you think sheB次元官网网址檒l take Moreno as her date? Maybe sheB次元官网网址檒l don the black and gold dress Moreno wore in 1962 and famously repeated in 2018.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Nominees: ; Troy Kotsur, B次元官网网址淐ODAB次元官网网址�; Jesse Plemons, B次元官网网址淭he Power of the DogB次元官网网址�; J.K. Simmons, B次元官网网址淏eing the RicardosB次元官网网址�; Kodi Smit-McPhee, B次元官网网址淭he Power of the Dog.B次元官网网址�
BAHR: Among mostly first-time nominees (save for J.K. Simmons, who previously won for B次元官网网址淲hiplashB次元官网网址�), B次元官网网址淐ODAB次元官网网址檚B次元官网网址� , winning at SAG, BAFTAs and Critics Choice and heB次元官网网址檚 likely to continue that streak come Oscar Sunday. The support for Kotsur and B次元官网网址淐ODAB次元官网网址� has only become more enthusiastic recently and it would be a history-making win. The 53-year-old is the first deaf man to have ever been nominated for an acting prize. IB次元官网网址檇 also liked to have seen Colman Domingo get some more widespread praise for B次元官网网址淶ola,B次元官网网址� or Mike Faist for B次元官网网址淲est Side Story.B次元官网网址�
COYLE: ItB次元官网网址檚 a very likeable group of performers but Kotsur has this one in the bag. I think it will be one of the nightB次元官网网址檚 best moments, not just because of the historic nature of KotsurB次元官网网址檚 win, but because itB次元官网网址檚 just reward for an actor who has long toiled and thrived on Los Angeles stages. Hinds was, though, fabulous in B次元官网网址淏elfastB次元官网网址� and the unnominated Richard Jenkins in B次元官网网址淭he HumansB次元官网网址� was also about as good as it gets.
BEST DIRECTOR
The Nominees: Kenneth Branagh, B次元官网网址淏elfastB次元官网网址�; Ry没suke Hamaguchi, B次元官网网址淒rive My CarB次元官网网址�; Paul Thomas Anderson, B次元官网网址淟icorice PizzaB次元官网网址�; Jane Campion, B次元官网网址淭he Power of the DogB次元官网网址�; Steven Spielberg, B次元官网网址淲est Side Story.B次元官网网址�
COYLE: Campion has long been the frontrunner. For the trailblazing filmmaker, who nearly three decades ago became only the second woman nominated in this category, itB次元官网网址檚 a coronation long in coming. Campion, the first woman ever to be twice nominated for best director, will win, and her cinematographer, , will become the first woman to win that award B次元官网网址� a triumph that should have happened long ago for women behind the camera.
BAHR: Yes, but will she thank Sam Elliott?
DOCUMENTARY
The Nominees: B次元官网网址淎scensionB次元官网网址�; B次元官网网址淎tticaB次元官网网址�; B次元官网网址淔leeB次元官网网址�; B次元官网网址淪ummer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)B次元官网网址�; B次元官网网址淲riting With Fire.B次元官网网址�
BAHR: Though Questlove is much-beloved by the Academy and his documentary , B次元官网网址淔leeB次元官网网址� likely has the advantage here since it was also nominated in the animated feature category. Also, while B次元官网网址淎tticaB次元官网网址� director Stanley Nelson won the Directors Guild award, that group is narrower than the AcademyB次元官网网址檚 voting body.
COYLE: To quote the Roots, QuestloveB次元官网网址檚 Oscar has B次元官网网址済ot to be, got to be reality.B次元官网网址� DonB次元官网网址檛 get me wrong, , and this could indeed be close. But B次元官网网址淪ummer of SoulB次元官网网址� might be the most universally adored film of the year. Both its uncovering of a lost Black history and its celebration of live performance were so profoundly suited to 2021. I canB次元官网网址檛 see it not winning.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
The Nominees: B次元官网网址淒rive My Car,B次元官网网址� Japan; B次元官网网址淔lee,B次元官网网址� Denmark; B次元官网网址淭he Hand of God,B次元官网网址� Italy; B次元官网网址淟unana: A Yak in the Classroom,B次元官网网址� Bhutan; B次元官网网址淭he Worst Person in the World,B次元官网网址� Norway.
COYLE: Ry没suke HamaguchiB次元官网网址檚 , which makes it a heavyweight in this category. ThereB次元官网网址檚 stiff competition here B次元官网网址� particularly from But HamaguchiB次元官网网址檚 three-hour masterwork B次元官网网址� a profound movie about art and dialogue as a means of human connection B次元官网网址� should win.
BAHR: B次元官网网址淒rive My CarB次元官网网址� definitely has the advantage. The picture and director nominations probably helped convince a few more voting members to give it a chance, too. ItB次元官网网址檚 hard not to wonder just how far it could have gone had it had the awards campaign budgets of some of its best picture brethren.
ANIMATED FEATURE
The Nominees: B次元官网网址淓ncantoB次元官网网址�; B次元官网网址淔leeB次元官网网址�; B次元官网网址淟ucaB次元官网网址�; B次元官网网址淭he Mitchells vs. the MachinesB次元官网网址�; B次元官网网址淩aya and the Last Dragon.B次元官网网址�
BAHR: B次元官网网址淓ncantoB次元官网网址� is certainly the juggernaut in this category, with the triple threat of Disney, Lin-Manuel Miranda and a massive hit song that . And under normal circumstances itB次元官网网址檇 be the easy frontrunner, but Disney has not had a good few weeks not to mention the fact that the studio has three nominations in the category which could split votes. Plus, there is massive industry goodwill for B次元官网网址淭he Mitchells vs the MachinesB次元官网网址� and it won the Annie award, which is why I think there may be a (good) upset in store.
COYLE: I think B次元官网网址淭he Mitchells vs the MachinesB次元官网网址� pulls it off. , but itB次元官网网址檚 a funny kind of juggernaut. The Disney release didnB次元官网网址檛 make a huge impression in theaters but once it hit streaming, its songs turned it into a sensation. Some voters may feel B次元官网网址淓ncantoB次元官网网址� is great for the music, while . I think so, anyway. So come on, academy. Do it for Monchi the pug.
B次元官网网址擫indsey Bahr And Jake Coyle, The Associated Press
