There were, admittedly, , so you might have missed it: The old Oscar rules have gone out the window.

A film, streamed by Apple TV+, won HollywoodB次元官网网址檚 top award without a penny of box office. But this year B次元官网网址� plot twist! B次元官网网址� there isnB次元官网网址檛 one streaming title in the hunt for the major prizes. When nominations are announced Tuesday, popcorn will be on the menu. and all look assured of best-picture nods.

But after a seesawing movie year where every pronouncement about the future of theatrical movies was plausible at different times B次元官网网址� Audiences are back! No theyB次元官网网址檙e not! B次元官网网址� the film Hollywood will crown the best of 2022 may, ultimately, be neither a streaming title nor a box-office smash.

have strongly suggested there are just three films with a realistic shot at best picture. The sci-fi indie B次元官网网址淓verything Everywhere All at Once,B次元官网网址� the Irish dark comedy B次元官网网址淭he Banshees of InisherinB次元官网网址� and Steven SpielbergB次元官网网址檚 fictionalized memoir B次元官网网址淭he FabelmansB次元官网网址� were the only films nominated for the top prizes of the , the and the Directors Guild. As much as some would like to see B次元官网网址淭op Gun: MaverickB次元官网网址� buzz the Oscar tower, striking out with the actorsB次元官网网址� guild has almost always been a death knell for best picture chances.

But itB次元官网网址檚 a until the on March 12. HereB次元官网网址檚 a rundown of what we can expect when nominations are announced Tuesday morning.

WHAT ARE THE FAVORITES?

The strongest support seems to be for and Daniel Kwan and Daniel ScheinertB次元官网网址檚 B次元官网网址淓verything Everywhere All at Once.B次元官网网址� Along with nods for direction, screenwriting and best picture, both films could score as many as four acting nominations Tuesday. is the frontrunner in the formidable best actress category, while her co-star, appears to be running away with best supporting actor. B次元官网网址淏ansheesB次元官网网址� star Colin Farrell is probably the stiffest competition for and in best actor, while Brendan Gleeson, Kerry Condon and Barry Keoghan may all score supporting nods.

WHAT IS B次元官网网址楾HE FABELMANSB次元官网网址�?

That was the answer in a recent episode, a chastening moment in an otherwise much-celebrated run for SpielbergB次元官网网址檚 Golden Globe-winning coming-of-age drama. B次元官网网址淭he FabelmansB次元官网网址� has been a frontrunner since but there are some cracks in its campaign beyond unanswered gameshow clues. surprisingly missed out on a SAG nomination, but expect the academy (which has nominated Williams four times before) to remedy that. More challenging is that, unlike B次元官网网址淓verything Everywhere All at OnceB次元官网网址� or B次元官网网址淭he Banshees of Inisherin,B次元官网网址� B次元官网网址淭he FabelmansB次元官网网址� ($14.4 million domestically) underperformed at the box office. Ironically, the filmmaker who helped create the modern blockbuster will have to win despite the faint whiff of theatrical disappointment. Spielberg, though, appears headed for his ninth best director nomination, and very likely, his third win in the category.

BUT WHAT ABOUT THOSE BLOCKBUSTERS?

With $1.5 billion in ticket sales, helped bring moviegoers B次元官网网址� especially older, more hesitant moviegoers B次元官网网址� back to theaters after two-plus yeas of pandemic. Expected it to be rewarded with a best picture nod, as well as many nominations in the technical categories. Getting six IMAX cameras into the cockpit of a fighter jet, as cinematographer Claudio Miranda managed, is the kind of filmmaking feat thatB次元官网网址檚 hard to ignore. (approaching $2 billion) will be in the mix in many of the same categories, too. And for the first time, a Marvel movie is poised to land an acting nomination: Angela Bassett, for B次元官网网址淏lack Panther: Wakanda Forever.B次元官网网址� SheB次元官网网址檒l also likely win.

Some would say that the Oscars could use such box-office hits. Ratings have tended to be higher in years where widely watched films are vying for best picture. In recent years, Oscar producers have vainly tried to add prizes for B次元官网网址渂est popular filmB次元官网网址� and Twitter-voted winners, and mostly only gotten mockery for their efforts. At the same time, more modest films B次元官网网址� B次元官网网址淐ODA,B次元官网网址� B次元官网网址淣omadland,B次元官网网址� B次元官网网址淧arasite,B次元官网网址� B次元官网网址淭he Shape of Water,B次元官网网址� B次元官网网址淢oonlightB次元官网网址� B次元官网网址� have usually triumphed.

WHAT ROUNDS OUT BEST PICTURE?

Ten films will be nominated for best picture, and seven of those slots feel like locks: B次元官网网址淭he Banshees of Inisherin,B次元官网网址� B次元官网网址淓verything Everywhere All at Once,B次元官网网址� B次元官网网址淭he Fabelmans,B次元官网网址� B次元官网网址淭op Gun: Maverick,B次元官网网址� B次元官网网址淭谩r,B次元官网网址� B次元官网网址淎vatar: The Way of WaterB次元官网网址� and B次元官网网址淓lvis.B次元官网网址� IB次元官网网址檇 expect to see Darren AronofskyB次元官网网址檚 B次元官网网址淭he WhaleB次元官网网址� and, maybe, Sarah PolleyB次元官网网址檚 B次元官网网址淲omen Talking,B次元官网网址� which scored a best ensemble nod from SAG. That would leave films like B次元官网网址淭riangle of Sadness,B次元官网网址� B次元官网网址淎ll Quiet on the Western FrontB次元官网网址� and B次元官网网址淕lass Onion: A Knives Out MysteryB次元官网网址� hunting for the the last spot.

WHATB次元官网网址橲 WITH THE B次元官网网址楪RASSROOTSB次元官网网址� CAMPAIGN FOR ANDREA RISEBOROUGH?

With Yeoh, Blanchett, Williams, Viola Davis (B次元官网网址淭he Woman KingB次元官网网址�), Ana de Armas (B次元官网网址淏londeB次元官网网址�) and Danielle Deadwyler (B次元官网网址淭illB次元官网网址�), the best actress category is already ultra-competitive. But has pushed Andrea Riseborough forward for her performance as an alcoholic West Texas mother in the little-seen October release, B次元官网网址淭o Leslie.B次元官网网址� Riseborough wasnB次元官网网址檛 seen as in the awards mix but she did land a nomination from the Independent Spirit Awards. Instead, itB次元官网网址檚 been a host of A-listers including Gwyneth Paltrow, Kate Winslet, Charlize Theron and Jennifer Aniston whose promotion of Riseborough suddenly put her on the Oscar map.

WHAT ELSE TO LOOK FOR?

Jamie Lee Curtis (B次元官网网址淓verything Everywhere All at OnceB次元官网网址�) could land her first Oscar nomination. So could Adam Sandler (B次元官网网址淗ustleB次元官网网址�), who was nominated by SAG for his Netflix basketball drama. The favored international film may not be the Indian sensation B次元官网网址淩RRB次元官网网址� (which wasnB次元官网网址檛 selected by India , including best song). The German entry B次元官网网址淎ll Quiet on the Western Front,B次元官网网址� coming off and aggressively pushed by Netflix, may be the foreign film that racks up multiple nominations Tuesday.

WHO WONB次元官网网址橳 BE BUT SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED?

The academyB次元官网网址檚 policy that international films are submitted by the governments of their origin countries has had a chilling effect on filmmakers working inside oppressive regimes. will be absent only because Iran, which imprisoned Panahi earlier this year, predictably chose not to submit it. my may find some well-deserved academy love for Paul Mescal but could surely contend in many categories, especially if they gave Oscars for B次元官网网址淏est Needle Drop.B次元官网网址� I might have also voted for Tilda Swinton in B次元官网网址淭he Eternal Daughter,B次元官网网址� Keke Palmer for B次元官网网址淣ope,B次元官网网址� Steven SoderberghB次元官网网址檚 B次元官网网址淜imiB次元官网网址� for best film and B次元官网网址淲eird: The Al Yankovic StoryB次元官网网址� for best screenplay. Plus, how are we not throwing awards at Daniel Craig for one of the yearB次元官网网址檚 funniest performances in B次元官网网址淕lass Onion: A Knives Out MysteryB次元官网网址�? He deserves it, if for nothing else, for the swimwear.

B次元官网网址� Jake Coyle, The Associated Press