Economists say the expected economic slowdown in 2023 may not result in higher levels of gig work, unlike previous recessions when levels of contract work and self-employment spiked.

They say the tight labour market, combined with a changing workforce and stubborn inflation, will make this recession different from those that preceded it.

B次元官网网址淭his is a confluence of factors weB次元官网网址檝e never seen before,B次元官网网址� said economist Armine Yalnizyan.

Though gig work conjures upthoughts of app-based work such as driving for Uber or finding clients through Fiverr, it has been around much longer. Taken more broadly, it includes contract, part-time and piecemeal work, or what Yalnizyan calls B次元官网网址渏ust-in-timeB次元官网网址� labour.

And that kind of work tends to spike in times of recession, said Yalnizyan.

That spike happens for two broad reasons, said Sheila Block, senior economist with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. One is that recessions are normally characterized by widespread job loss, which means more unemployed people looking for work wherever they can find it. The second is that during a recession, employers are usually looking to cut costs and are more likely to hire contract or part-time labour instead of offering full-time, permanent positions.

According to Statistics Canada, the share of gig workers among all workers rose from 5.5 per cent in 2005 to 8.2 per cent in 2016. There were two sharp increases during that period, one corresponding with the Great Recession of 2008-09.

Statistics Canada data also shows that self-employment rose by 3.9 per cent in Canada between October 2008 and October 2009 B次元官网网址� an increase of more than 100,000 self-employed people while the number of employed workers decreased by almost half a million.

Of course, 2023B次元官网网址檚 downturn would be the first major recession where app-based work such as ride-share driving is even a widely available option, said Yalnizayn.

In fact, the widely predicted 2023 downturn will be different from past major recessions in several significant ways.

Even as the economy shows signs of slowing, the labour market is still tight, said Yalnizyan. The unemployment rate remains low, at five per cent in December, and the market gained another outsized 104,000 jobs last month.

Employers in many industries are struggling to hire the workers they need. That means workers have more options for full-time work available to them.

Those two factors that normally lead to an increase in gig work during a recession are not present this time compared with previous recessions, said Block.

B次元官网网址淲e havenB次元官网网址檛 seen a surge in self-employment yet this time,B次元官网网址� said Yalnizyan.

The baby boomer generation is also continuing to exit the workforce, leaving more jobs available. That may continue to keep the labour market strong in 2023, said Yalnizyan.

B次元官网网址淪o long as that demographic phenomenon continues, we may not see a huge spike in gig work,B次元官网网址� she said. And even the promised increase in immigration likely wonB次元官网网址檛 change the tide, she added, unless Canada gets better at matching new immigrants quickly to jobs in their skill set.

ItB次元官网网址檚 not normal to see both demand and supply sides of the labour market changing at the same time, said Yalnizyan.

B次元官网网址淲hat will the recession look like? Well, it wonB次元官网网址檛 look like any other recession weB次元官网网址檝e ever seen.B次元官网网址�

Higher inflation also means that app-based gig work will pay even less when costs like gas are factored in, said Block, making it a less attractive option for many.

However, Block said much depends on the depth of the recession in 2023, which experts so far are predicting will be relatively mild. If it isnB次元官网网址檛, though, the labour market could start to look more like previous recessions, with widespread job losses, fewer full-time jobs available B次元官网网址� and a spike in gig work.

But regardless of whether gig work increases significantly in 2023, there is already a large number of workers in Canada who are self-employed, many of them app-based gig workers or other kinds of independent contractors. And if those people lose hours or income because of a recession, they will struggle more than other workers to land on their feet due to a lack of protection from labour regulations and employment insurance, said Block.

B次元官网网址淲hether thereB次元官网网址檚 an increase or not, the lack of protection for these low wage workers continues to be a huge problem,B次元官网网址� she said.

B次元官网网址擱osa Saba, The Canadian Press