The World Bank reported on Monday that oil prices could be pushed into B次元官网网址渦ncharted watersB次元官网网址� if intensifies, which could result in increased food prices worldwide.

The World BankB次元官网网址檚 Commodity Markets Outlook found that while the effects on oil prices should be limited if the conflict doesnB次元官网网址檛 widen, the outlook B次元官网网址渨ould darken quickly if the conflict were to escalate.B次元官网网址�

The attack on Israel by the militant organization Hamas and the ensuing Israel military operation against Hamas have raised fears of .

And the threat of escalation looms. Israeli tanks and infantry as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a B次元官网网址渟econd stageB次元官网网址� in the war. Hamas officials have called for more , including Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The World Bank report simulates three scenarios for the global oil supply in the event of a small, medium or large disruption.

Effects should be limited if the conflict doesnB次元官网网址檛 widen in a B次元官网网址渟mall disruptionB次元官网网址� scenario B次元官网网址� as oil prices are expected to decline from current levels of roughly $90 a barrel to an average of $81 a barrel next year, the World Bank estimates.

But during a B次元官网网址渕edium disruptionB次元官网网址� B次元官网网址� equivalent to the disruptions experienced during the Iraq war B次元官网网址� the global oil supply of about 100 million barrels a day would decline by 3 million to 5 million barrels per day, driving oil prices up possibly by 35%.

In a B次元官网网址渓arge disruptionB次元官网网址� scenario B次元官网网址� comparable to the Arab oil embargo of 1973 B次元官网网址� the global oil supply would shrink by 6 million to 8 million barrels per day and prices could go up by 56% to 75%, or to $140 to $157 a barrel, according to the report.

Indermit Gill, the World BankB次元官网网址檚 chief economist, said RussiaB次元官网网址檚 invasion of Ukraine has already had disruptive effects on the global economy B次元官网网址渢hat persist to this day.B次元官网网址�

B次元官网网址淚f the conflict were to escalate, the global economy would face a dual energy shock for the first time in decades B次元官网网址� not just from the war in Ukraine but also from the Middle East,B次元官网网址� Gill said.

Ayhan Kose, the World BankB次元官网网址檚 deputy chief economist, said higher oil prices will inevitably result in higher food prices.

B次元官网网址淚f a severe oil price shock materializes, it would push up food price inflation that has already been elevated in many developing countriesB次元官网网址� as a result of RussiaB次元官网网址檚 Ukraine invasion, Kose said. B次元官网网址淎n escalation of the latest conflict would intensify food insecurity, not only within the region but also across the world.B次元官网网址�

Overall, oil prices have risen about 6% since the start of the conflict. And gold B次元官网网址� a commodity that tends to rise in periods of conflict B次元官网网址� has increased roughly 8%, according to the World Bank.

Some analysts are skeptical that the U.S. would experience massive , since U.S. oil production is at an all-time high.

At a Bloomberg event on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the Biden administration was monitoring the economic consequences of IsraelB次元官网网址檚 war against Hamas carefully.

B次元官网网址淪o far, we have not yet seen much that has global consequences,B次元官网网址� she said, but if the war spreads B次元官网网址渙f course there could be more meaningful consequences.B次元官网网址�

International Energy Agency Executive Director said between RussiaB次元官网网址檚 invasion and the latest violence between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, B次元官网网址渘o one can convince me that oil and gas are safe and secure energy choices for countries or consumers.B次元官网网址�

Fatima Hussein, The Associated Press