We use Uber to go places, Slack to chat with co-workers and Pinterest to save our favourite ideas. Why not own a piece of these companies that increasingly dominate our daily lives?
ThatB次元官网网址檚 the question for many regular investors as a parade of well-known technology companies are expected to make their stocks available to everyone for purchase this year, not just big pension funds and wealthy people. Lyft was at the head of the line when it had its initial public offering of stock, or IPO, on Friday.
ItB次元官网网址檚 tempting to buy stocks of companies whose products or services we see or use so often. But B次元官网网址渋nvesting in what you knowB次元官网网址 doesnB次元官网网址檛 mean buying Uber because you request a ride every other day. It means knowing whether Uber will get enough customers at high-enough prices to become profitable, and at what level.
B次元官网网址淒onB次元官网网址檛 jump in with both feet just because you use the product,B次元官网网址 said Kathleen Smith, principal at Renaissance Capital, which researches IPOs. B次元官网网址淵ouB次元官网网址檙e not going to know the value.B次元官网网址
Lyft gave investors a lesson in how quickly a companyB次元官网网址檚 market value can change. The ride-hailing companyB次元官网网址檚 stock surged more than 20% from its IPO price on Friday. But by the first hour of LyftB次元官网网址檚 second day of trading, the stock had fallen below the IPO price of $72.
A stumble after a first-day pop perhaps should not have been a surprise, given the track record for IPOs. Here are some considerations if you want to join the IPO rush, which may include such companies as Uber and video-conferencing service Zoom.
DO IPOs PERFORM WELL?
Yes and no.
The first day of trading for an IPO is often a great one, when enthusiasm is surging. IPOs have returned an average of 17.9% in their first day of trading, according to data from 1980 to 2016 compiled by Jay Ritter, an IPO specialist at the University of FloridaB次元官网网址檚 Warrington College of Business. That would count as great year for an S&P 500 index fund.
But IPOs go on to return an average of 21.9% in the three years following their IPO, lagging the market.
Some IPOs tend to do better over the long term, notably those that bring in more revenue. Since 1980, companies with $1 billion or more in revenue (in 2015 dollars) have returned an average of 42.7% in the three years following the IPO. ThatB次元官网网址檚 better than the market.
Smaller companies, meanwhile, have historically had better first-day gains than their bigger IPO rivals but go on to return an average 20.2% over three years. ThatB次元官网网址檚 well below the market.
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WHAT ABOUT THIS CROP OF IPOs?
While Lyft, Uber and other upcoming IPOs are big names, many of them lose money. ItB次元官网网址檚 a growing trend. Last year, about eight of every 10 companies going public were unprofitable, according to Ritter. ThatB次元官网网址檚 the highest percentage since 2000, the height of the dot-com bubble.
To be sure, companies going public today tend to be much more seasoned. Since 2008, the median age for an IPO company has been at least 10 years. ThatB次元官网网址檚 roughly double the age of the typical company going public in 1999 or 2000, at 5 or 6.
With greater age often comes higher revenue. Last year, the typical tech IPO made 10 times more in sales than the median in 2000, even after adjusting for inflation, according to Ritter.
B次元官网网址淚POs are risky, but given the track record of tech over the last 10 years since the recession, theyB次元官网网址檝e been the shining stars, theyB次元官网网址檝e been where the growth is,B次元官网网址 said Karyn Cavanaugh, senior markets strategist at Voya Investment Management.
WHAT IF I DONB次元官网网址橳 LIKE BUYING INDIVIDUAL STOCKS?
One of the biggest trends in investing over the last decade is the move toward index funds. Picking stocks on oneB次元官网网址檚 own B次元官网网址 or trusting a fund manager to do it B次元官网网址 can be risky and expensive. Instead, investors are flocking to index funds that own baskets of many stocks, such as all those in the S&P 500 index.
IPO stocks eventually filter into index funds. Dropbox, for example, had its IPO last year, and its shares are already in more than two dozen ETFs, such as VanguardB次元官网网址檚 Total Stock Market ETF and the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF.
One ETF focuses specifically on recent IPOs. The Renaissance IPO ETF will add Lyft shares later this week, and it tracks an index that holds companies that have had an IPO within the last two years, giving more weight to the bigger ones. Its returns have topped the S&P 500 over the last three years, although it has lagged since its 2013 inception.
Volatility has become part of the reputation for IPOs. B次元官网网址淚 think IPOs are the Rodney Dangerfield of asset classes,B次元官网网址 said Renaissance CapitalB次元官网网址檚 Smith. B次元官网网址淓veryone who wants to feel like theyB次元官网网址檙e conservative or smart picks on IPOs, saying B次元官网网址楧onB次元官网网址檛 go there.B次元官网网址橞次元官网网址
But she said IPOs today are different from 1999 and 2000, with more rigour around researching them. B次元官网网址淚f you want to focus on this and feel you can tolerate the volatility, you can get outsized returns,B次元官网网址 she said.
Even so, market strategists say average investors eager to snap up shares in the latest IPO would do well skipping the frenzied early days of trading and buy later, or wait until the stock makes its way into an index fund.
B次元官网网址淚f these companies are going to stay around and be good investments, they will be in the future,B次元官网网址 said Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager with Globalt Investments. B次元官网网址淟et the hype go out. Be an investor, not a gambler.B次元官网网址
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AP Business Writer Alex Veiga contributed to this report.
Stan Choe, The Associated Press
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