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Greater Victoria real estate industry wrestles with uncertainty

Real estate sales continue to drop in 2018, but prices remain sticky, even going up, as analysts continue to grapple with recent regulatory changes.
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Real estate sales continue to drop in 2018, but prices remain sticky, even going up, as analysts continue to grapple with recent regulatory changes.

That is the upshot from new figures that the Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB) released this week. They show local realtors sold 688 properties in March 2018 B次元官网网址 25.9 per cent fewer than in March last year. But the benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core rose by 9.4 per cent compared to the same period last year to $859,400. In fact, the benchmark value for a condominium rose by almost 20 per cent to $490,000 compared to the same period last year.

In short, the local real estate market appears to operate somewhat outside traditional theories of supply and demand.

VREB released these figures just days after the provincial government had announced changes to the so-called speculation tax first introduced in February following criticism from various communities.

The changes exempt rural cabins and certain areas like the Gulf Islands, and reserve the two per cent tax for foreign buyers, while introducing a one per cent rate for out-of-province owners and 0.5 per cent rate for British Columbians.

Government leaders say 99 per cent of British Columbians will not pay the speculation tax, which they say will improve housing affordability by curbing speculation and some social policy experts have praised the revisions.

B次元官网网址淚 think you could argue that theyB次元官网网址檙e now closer to the original intent,B次元官网网址 said Michael Prince, a professor of social policy at the University of Victoria, in a recent interview with Black Press.

On the other hand, some communities in the Greater Victoria such as Sidney have expressed open concern about the impact of the tax and VREB blames B次元官网网址 at least partially B次元官网网址 these changes for the drop in March sales.

B次元官网网址淎s we expected, March sales are tracking lower than in 2017,B次元官网网址 said Kyle Kerr, president in a release. B次元官网网址淭his is likely due to a number of factors that have created hesitation in consumers, including recent heavy measures by the provincial government to reduce the value of home prices and the federal governmentB次元官网网址檚 new mortgage qualification rules.B次元官网网址

These factors, combined with interest higher rates, have created in the words of Kerr B次元官网网址渁 housing market that is in transition due to outside influences.B次元官网网址

But lower sales have not necessarily translated into lower prices. B次元官网网址淒espite all of the above, we continue to see benchmark price increases across our market and demand persists B次元官网网址 partly due to low inventory, but also because of our highly desirable location,B次元官网网址 said Kerr.

Simply put, the region remains a sellerB次元官网网址檚 market, and figures for Saanich speak to this point. The bench mark price for a single family home in Saanich East ($898,700) rose nearly 8 per cent in March 2018 compared to the same period last year. For Saanich West ($719,000), the corresponding increase was almost 10 per cent.

Leo Spalteholz, a local realtor, who runs the House Hunt Victoria blog, said it will remain so B次元官网网址 at least for a while. All the usual metrics such as sales and inventory point towards a cooling market, he said.

B次元官网网址... the new wildcard here is the impact of the [speculation] tax,B次元官网网址 Spalteholz said. B次元官网网址淚t has the potential to bring substantial inventory on to the market that we wouldnB次元官网网址檛 have normally seen.B次元官网网址



Wolf Depner

About the Author: Wolf Depner

I joined the national team with Black Press Media in 2023 from the Peninsula B次元官网网址 Review, where I had reported on Vancouver Island's Saanich Peninsula since 2019.
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