Experts warn that a post-Brexit United Kingdom will present Canadian business with tremendous uncertainty about billions of dollars worth of trade and investments, no matter how the British Parliament votes on Saturday.

The outcome of the unusual weekend vote in London is itself far from predictable, as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson struggles to get support for a controversial agreement that he reached Thursday with the European Union.

But observers say even a Johnson success would only provide a starting point for further rounds of difficult negotiations between London and Brussels and eventually between Canada and the United Kingdom.

Fasken partner Clifford Sosnow says the primary benefit of JohnsonB次元官网网址檚 plan is that it would provide for 14 months to 36 months of negotiations on a new trade deal for two of CanadaB次元官网网址檚 biggest export and investment markets.

B次元官网网址淭he major concern for everybody is the instability and the instability from not knowing what the business relationship will be, what the investment relationship will be,B次元官网网址� says Sosnow, who provides strategic advice about international trade and investments at one of CanadaB次元官网网址檚 largest business law firms.

He adds that open talks between the United Kingdom and Canada would be allowed only after the U.K. leaves the European Union on Oct. 31, if JohnsonB次元官网网址檚 schedule is passed by the British House of Commons.

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The United Kingdom by itself, represents one of CanadaB次元官网网址檚 top five destinations for investments and top 10 markets for goods and services.

It has also been a gateway for Canadian companies that do business in the European Union, which is CanadaB次元官网网址檚 second- or third-biggest trading partner after the United States and China, depending on the measure.

About 40 per cent of Canadian trade in merchandise with the EU goes through United Kingdom, says Achim Hurrelmann, a political scientist and co-director of Carleton UniversityB次元官网网址檚 Centre for European Studies in Ottawa.

Without a good free-trade deal between Brussels and London, companies may reconsider B次元官网网址渨hether they want to stay in the United Kingdom or B次元官网网址� go to Dublin (Ireland), or to France or to Germany or the Netherlands.B次元官网网址�

B次元官网网址淭o some extent, that has already happened but my impression is that most companies have been staying put and observing and waiting (to see) what is happening,B次元官网网址� Hurrelmann says.

He says that JohnsonB次元官网网址檚 proposed deal would provide more time to sort out the U.K.B次元官网网址檚 trade relationship with the EU but also with Canada.

B次元官网网址淐anada wants to have a trade deal with the U.K. and the U.K. wants to have one with Canada as well,B次元官网网址� Hurrelmann says.

B次元官网网址淏ut the question, of course, is will we have time to actually work that out properly or will that have to be very rushed after a no-deal Brexit.B次元官网网址�

Mark Camilleri, a Brussels-based Canadian at the Canada EU Trade and Investment Association, says he thinks itB次元官网网址檚 fair to say B次元官网网址渢hat having any deal is better than having no dealB次元官网网址� if only to reduce uncertainty.

He says that having no U.K.-EU. deal B次元官网网址渋t would potentially be very destabilizing for businesses, including Canadian businesses that are not just based in the U.K. but also based in the EU that are trading to the U.K.B次元官网网址�

But Camilleri noted the British Parliament has rejected Theresa MayB次元官网网址檚 proposals on three occasions so B次元官网网址檕ne has to hold oneB次元官网网址檚 breath as to whether or not (JohnsonB次元官网网址檚 deal) will get through.B次元官网网址�

David Paddon, The Canadian Press

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