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Annual inflation cools to 2.2%; core measure above 2% for first time in 6 years

The upward pressure on inflation last month was led by higher costs for gasoline, air transportation and restaurants.
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Signage marks the Statistics Canada offices in Ottawa on July 21, 2010. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

The countryB次元官网网址檚 annual inflation rate cooled slightly last month but, at 2.2 per cent, it stayed hot enough to hover above the two per cent midpoint of the central bankB次元官网网址檚 ideal range, Statistics Canada said Friday in a new report.

Headline inflation for April was a little lower than the March number of 2.3 per cent, which was the rateB次元官网网址檚 strongest year-over-year reading since 2014. It matched the 2.2 per cent figure for February.

The upward pressure on inflation last month was led by higher costs for gasoline, air transportation and restaurants. The biggest downward forces came from cheaper prices for digital equipment, travel tours and natural gas.

Core prices, meanwhile, also continued their gradual, upward climb last month, the report said.

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The average of the Bank of CanadaB次元官网网址檚 three measures of core inflation, which omits more-volatile items like pump prices, edged above the two per cent mark last month for the first time since February 2012. The core average was 2.03 per cent, up from 1.97 per cent the previous month.

The Bank of Canada carefully scrutinizes inflation numbers ahead of its interest-rate decisions. It can use rate hikes as a tool to help prevent inflation from climbing too high.

But recent readings are unlikely to have a major impact on an upcoming rate decision because governor Stephen Poloz has predicted inflation to remain above two per cent for all of 2018.

Last month, Poloz challenged the notion that two per cent represents some unbreachable barrier. With higher energy prices, he said itB次元官网网址檚 natural for the long-term trendline to balance itself out B次元官网网址 and he called it a B次元官网网址減ositive thing.B次元官网网址

B次元官网网址漌hat I donB次元官网网址檛 want is for people to spend this entire year asking what IB次元官网网址檓 up to because inflation is above target,B次元官网网址 Poloz told reporters during a late-April visit to Washington, D.C..

B次元官网网址淵ou need every once in a while to remind people thereB次元官网网址檚 a range, and thatB次元官网网址檚 okay. The policy allows for this. WeB次元官网网址檙e not violating our target in some way.B次元官网网址

The bankB次元官网网址檚 inflation range is one to three per cent, but considerable attention is focused on where the rate sits relative to the two per cent midpoint.

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Last month, the central bank raised its headline inflation projections as it pointed to the temporary effects of higher gasoline prices and minimum wage increases. The bank is now expecting inflation to average 2.3 per cent this year before settling back down to 2.1 per cent in 2019.

Poloz has raised the central bankB次元官网网址檚 benchmark interest rate three times since last July and is expected to remain on his rate-hiking path with the economy operating close to its capacity.

But last month the bank left its key rate at 1.25 per cent, where it has been since January.

Poloz said that the economy was still unable to maintain its pace without the stimulative power of lower rates, despite recent improvements.

The bankB次元官网网址檚 next rate decision is May 30, but many analysts have been predicting Poloz will wait until July before introducing another rate increase.

In a separate report Friday, Statistics Canada released its latest figures for retail trade, which showed an increase for a third-straight month with sales rising 0.6 per cent in March. Retail sales rose to a total of $50.2 billion.

Retail trade also saw increases of 0.5 per cent in February and 0.3 per cent in January.

The report said higher sales in March for vehicles and automotive parts B次元官网网址 especially by new car dealers B次元官网网址 more than offset weaker sales at food and beverage stores and gas stations. By excluding sales of vehicles and parts, retail trade would have contracted 0.2 per cent in March.

Andy Blatchford, The Canadian Press

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