CanadaBԪַs regional wireless and internet carriers will benefit the most from this weekBԪַs landmark regulatory ruling by the CRTC, telecommunications analysts and consumer advocates say.
Financial analysts at RBC Capital Markets and Canaccord Genuity Capital Markets say QuebecorBԪַs BԪַtron and Cogeco Communications will likely have more room to grow, given the CRTCBԪַs new restrictions on BCEBԪַs Bell Canada, Rogers Communications Inc. and Telus Corp.
But the analysts also say the three big national wireless carriers will likely be able to manage the new CRTC rules.
BԪַWe view this decision as BԪַconstructive-enoughBԪַ and manageable for national operators while at the same time BԪַextending a helping handBԪַ to existing regional wireless operators,BԪַ RBC analyst Drew McReynolds wrote in an report for clients.
However, one of CanadaBԪַs most outspoken consumer advocacy groups, OpenMedia, criticized the CRTC on Thursday for putting too much emphasis on the regional carriers, doing too little to limit the market power of the Big Three and doing very little to help new entrants to the wireless markets.
OpenMedia executive director Laura Tribe said the CRTC had missed a chance to stimulate competition from smaller players.
BԪַIt really doubles down on the idea that a regional provider will be sufficient to correct the extreme market share that Bell, Telus and Rogers have,BԪַ Tribe said in an interview.
Tribe has told numerous government and regulatory hearings that CanadaBԪַs three biggest telecommunications companies BԪַ which collectively have more than 90 per cent of the countryBԪַs subscriber base BԪַ are too big and consumers have too few choices
The financial analysts took a more favourable view of the CRTC decision, noting that BԪַtron will have more options to strengthen its base in Quebec or buy assets in other provinces and Cogeco may be able to advance its strategic goal of adding wireless to its internet and cable TV networks.
BԪַThe CRTCBԪַs decision essentially means that BԪַeligibleBԪַ regional wireless carriers would be able to use incumbent networks to offer services until they build out their networks,BԪַ wrote Aravinda Galappatthige in a report from Canaccord Genuity.
Galappatthige said the decision is very favourable to regional wireless carriers.
BԪַIt does open the door for QBR (Quebecor) to extend beyond Quebec with wireless services whether they choose to do so in a limited fashion (i.e. parts of Ontario) or pick up the mantle as the fourth quasi-national player,BԪַ Galappatthige wrote.
CanadaBԪַs current BԪַfourth quasi-national playerBԪַ is the former Wind Mobile, which has about two million subscribers in Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia. About half of them were added after the formerly independent company was bought in 2016 by Shaw Communications Inc. and renamed Freedom Mobile.
Most observers, including the CRTC, say the future for Shaw and Freedom is more difficult to predict because of a proposed takeover by Rogers, which has the largest base of subscribers and a network that spans most of the country. The Rogers-Shaw deal is subject to three federal approvals, including the CRTC and the Competition Bureau.
Quebecor chief executive Pierre Karl Peladeau told a committee of MPs, who are studying the Rogers-Shaw deal, that BԪַtron had originally wanted to become a national wireless carrier, but it sold its licences outside Quebec after scaling back its ambitions due to the enormous expense of building a new network.
David Paddon, The Canadian Press
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